THE MARINERS TRADED FOR JESSE WINKER!!!! And got Eugenio Suarez too.
The official trade was Jesse Winker (OF) and Eugenio Suarez (3B/SS/2B) for Brandon Williamson (LHP), Justin Dunn (RHP), Jake Fraley (OF) and a player to be named later OR cash considerations.
At first glance, I wondered how the Mariners got away with highway robbery. Winker and Suarez have played in Major League All-Star games!
The Mariners were in desperate need of a left-handed power bat. And Eugenio Suarez is only 30 years old and has a 49(!) HR season in his portfolio.
Let's start with salary. It is abundantly clear that the Cincinnati Reds are in intense salary dump mode. Two days prior, the Reds traded Sonny Gray (SP) to the Twins for a teenage pitching prospect in Chase Petty (ORG ranks: #4 Baseball Prospectus, #7 Baseball America,
#14 Fangraphs) and 24 year-old right handed reliever Francis Peguero. Petty throws two potential plus pitches (99 mph fastball and slider) but can't yet hit the broad side of a barn and Peguero is a middling relief prospect. Gray put up a 2.4 fWAR season in 2021 and a 4.5 fWAR season in 2019. The big stat is that he is owed $10.7 million in 2022 with a club option for $13 million in 2022. This is as clear of a salary dump as you will find.
Jesse Winker (OF) is 28 years-old and arbitration eligible but won't be a free agent until 2024. He will be under team control until he is 30. Sportrac estimates Winker to receive $7 million in arbitration in 2022. Eugenio Suarez (IF) is under team control through 2025. He is due $11 million from 2022-2024 with a $15 million club option for 2025. The Reds wanted to get out from under Suarez's contract. All three players headed to the Reds are pre-arb players.
$18 Million in salary going to the Mariners in 2022 vs three minimum salary players.
Winker's salary in 2023 will increase from $7 million and Suarez is due another $11 million. The Reds cleared $28.7 million from their books for 2022 in trading Gray, Winker, and Suarez but only have four minor leaguers and one Jake Fraley to show for it.
The Mariners, on the other hand, have a current total payroll of just under $90 million (Sportrac) with money burning a hole in GM Jerry DiPoto's pockets. The Mariners jumped at the chance to trade for a player the caliber of Winker in exchange for taking on Suarez's contract. But Suarez is one of my prime bounce back candidates for 2022.
Ok. So we know the Mariners took on $18 million in salary for 2022. What are the getting?
Jesse Winker 2021:
.305/.394/.950
485 Plate Appearances
79 runs
24 HR
71 RBI
1 SB
10.9% walk rate
15.5% K rate
148 wRC+
90.6 avg EV
113.4 max EV
10.8° launch angle
46.8% hard hit rate
In 367 plate appearances, WInker had a slash line vs Right handed pitching of
.346/.428/1.070 (!!!) with a 178 wRC+
In 118 PAs vs LHP, he hit .176/.288/.572. There's obviously work to be done vs left handers, or the Mariners will use him as a highly productive strong side platoon. He is joining an outfield filled with right handed bats, Mitch Haniger, Kyle Lewis, and soon Julio Rodriguez. So if he produces vs right handers and sits versus tough left handers the Mariners will still realize their value from Winker.
Don't expect the same level of power production from Winker. His did not have drastic home/road splits last season (.980 OPS at home vs. .922 OPS on the road) but Ciincinnati's home park, Great American Ball Park, has an overall three year rolling park factor for left handed hitters of 106 (6% above league average) and a 133 park factor for left handed HRs. On the other hand, Seattle is below average at 93 overall and 98 for HRs for left handed hitters. Expect a few less home runs and a dip in batting average.
His current Bat-X projection reflects this:
.267/.364/.833 with 24 HR, 75 runs, 72 RBI, 1SB in 567 plate appearances.
He will likely DH and play corner OF and hit second or third in the Mariners lineup. He may even play a little first base, giving Ty France a breather against the toughest right handers.
His fantasy value will decrease slightly because of home park and changing leagues.
He was an OF2 and the #18 OF in my rankings prior to the trade. His updated value will probably drop him down a few spots into the bottom half of the OF2 ranks.
The following was my write up for Eugenio Suarez from the third base fantasy rankings:
"Eugenio Suarez (Cincinnati Reds) 2021: .198/.286/.713, 71 run, 31 HR, 79 RBI, 0 SB
Fantrax ADP: 196.73
Eugenio, meet cliff. Cliff, meet Eugenio. Suarez fell off of the proverbial stat cliff in 2021. Coming off of a career year in 2019 which saw him hit 49(!) HRs, drive in 103 runs, and post an OPS of .930, Suarez slid under the Mendoza line in 2021, had a sub .300 OPS, and tanked a lot of fantasy baseball teams. So what gives?
The answer is not much. His walk rate was slightly lower, K-rate slightly higher. But these shifts were negligible. His EV and launch angle were very similar to 2019, his barrel% was actually 2.2% higher, and his HardHit% was the same. The three stats where there was more change were his pull percent which went from 52% in 2019 to 47.2% in 2021, his medium contact vs hard contact rates, medium increased from 38.3% in 2019 to 49.6% in 2021 and hard decreased from 46.7% in 2019 to 34.8% in 2021, and his BABIP (.312 in 2019 and .224 in 2021).
Can Eugenio get his mojo back? It certainly seems like pulling a few more fly balls and getting a little luckier with balls in play could get his average back up closer to .240/.250 and his HRs between 35 and 40. This would be a very useful third baseman in fantasy. He is rated below Donaldson and Turner because we are looking for a huge rebound season but if he does rediscover the 2019 magic even a little bit, he will vault back in to the top 10. He's a worthwhile flier later in the draft if you can get him."
Suarez had an OAA (Outs Above Average) of 0 at third base last season in 375 attempts, making him an exactly league average third baseman. He was -9 at shortstop in 119 attempts. He's a third baseman. Period. My belief is that Noelvi Marte will outgrow shortstop and become a slugging third baseman and a major leaguer by the end of 2023. He is the heir apparent to Eugenio Suarez. But until this trade, the Mariners were prepared to mix and match Abraham Toro, Dylan Moore, and Adam Frazier at second and third. Adding Suarez allows Frazier to settle in at second and Toro to assume a utility role, which appears to be his best position, reducing his exposure as a regular.
Potential MARINERS 2022 lineup
vs R
4 Frazier
9 Haniger
7 Winker
3 France
8 Kelenic (bad D)
DH Lewis
5 Suarez
2 Raleigh
6 Crawford
vs L
4 Frazier
9 Haniger
3 France
8 Lewis
5 Suarez
DH Torrens
2 Murphy
7 Kelenic
6 Crawford
I love it! Add Julio Rodriguez mid-season and we are looking at a playoff offense! And what did we give up to make this trade? Our third best pitching prospect (Williamson) in a loaded system, a disappointing pitcher who is past prospect status, and a strong side platoon fourth outfielder. Wow!
Who did the Reds receive:
Brandon Williamson (LHP) 2019 second round pick of the Mariners (2.18) out of TCU
Williamson pitched 98.1 innings last year between High-A and Double-A striking out 153 batters. His fastball sits in the low 90s with a big, vertical, plus curveball. He also has a slider and changeup but he will make his hay throwing the FB and CB. He projects as a #3/4 starter in an decent rotation making it through the order twice.
Most scouts have Williamson's pitch arsenal as:
FB: 60 CB: 60 SL: 50 CH: 50
Command: 45
FV: 50
Williamson is a good pitching prospect. But with the pitching prospects on the horizon for the Mariners and the signing of Robbie Ray in the off-season (CY YOUNG AWARD WINNING ROBBIE RAY!), the Mariners rotation moving looks like this:
#1 ROBBIE RAY (signed through 2026 with an opt-out after 2024)
#2 Marco Gonzales (signed through 2024 with a 2025 club option)
#3 Chris Flexen (signed through 2022 with 2023 club option)
#4 Logan Gilbert (free agent in 2028)
#5 Free Agent/Matt Brash/Justus Sheffield/George Kirby/Levi Stoudt/Emerson Hancock
Kirby is the Mariners top pitching prospect. Brash is a high strikeout prospect who may thrive in the bullpen. Stoudt is just outside of most prospect list top 100s. And Hancock was the sixth pick overall in the 2020 draft.
The Mariners pitching staff is in great shape for years to come with cost-controlled starters. Trading Williamson from organizational depth was a great move.
Justin Dunn is a former top prospect. He's a right handed pitcher who was traded from the Mets to the Mariners in the trade of Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz for Jarred Kelenic. While he has decent four pitch stuff, Dunn has never been able to harness his control in the major leagues. He has a career 15.5% walk rate and a 20.6% K rate. He is a throw-in arm at this point who will be a success if he can carve out a role for the Reds in middle relief.
Jake Fraley was known in Seattle for his beard as much as he was for his walk rate.
He walked 17.4% of the time for the Mariners in 2021. Problem was he hit .210 with a .721 OPS, despite his walk rate. At best, Fraley will platoon in a corner outfield spot (with someone like Aristides Aquino perhaps?). He offers a little speed and a little power and won't hurt you with his defense. A decent fourth outfielder for the Reds. And a fantasy baseball afterthought.
In short, the Mariners get an A+ for this trade. They have a lot of money to spend this off-season. They basically spent $18 million in this trade. However, they did not block any of their top prospects in Kirby, J-Rod, and Marte. Signing Kris Bryant would have been awesome, OBP, defense, 20+ HRs. And despite KB's defensive flexibility, he is most valuable as a third baseman, which i believe to be Marte's future position. Haniger will be a free agent after 2022. The Mariners have given themselves options in the outfield with J-Rod, Kelenic, Lewis, Haniger, and now Winker. This is the best possible scenario as far as I am concerned. We didn't mortgage the future, holding on to our top prospects. We drastically improved our offense with Winker. There is a high probability Suarez is a right handed hitting Kyle Seager this year. And there is more money to spend on free agency IF the price is right. Maybe a third starter? Maybe a high dollar first baseman? This may be our year. This trade definitely increased our chances for a playoff bid. Go Mariners!
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