Tier One - The Eric Dickerson Tier
1. Jose Ramirez (Cleveland Gaurdians) 2021: .266/.355/.893, 111 runs, 36 HR, 103 RBI, 27 SB
Current Fantrax ADP: 5.07
J-Ram has established himself as a top 4 fantasy player. He is a four and a half
tool player whose history says he can still be five tool. Provided health, J-Ram is pretty much 100 runs, 35 HR, 100 RBI, 25 steals. If he can bring his batting average up slightly, you can make the case for him as the number one overall player. Tatis has health and swing and miss questions. Turner has a better hit tool and steals more bags. But J-Ram has the advantage in HR and RBI. I rank him above Juan Soto and Vladito because of his position AND steals.
Ramirez is incredibly solid across the board. 11% walk-rate vs 14% K-rate. 74th percentile barrel-rate. 77th sprint speed. 93% zone-contact. 28% chase.
J-Ram is about as sure of a bet as there is this year. And to get this kind of production from a third baseman is a coup. Only Villar, Machado, and Kris Bryant had double digit steals among the players we classify at third base , with Villar's 14 (vs. J-Ram's 27) being the highest. J-Ram is in a tier of his own. Do what you can to secure his services.
Tier Two
2. Rafael Devers (Boston Red Sox) 2021: .279/.352/.890, 101 runs, 38 HR, 113 RBI, 5 SB
Current Fantrax ADP: 18.95
There are a lot of red numbers in the Devers statcast profile. He's a hitter. pure and simple and a potential MVP candidate. The only skill Devers will not provide is speed although he did have 8 steals in 2019. Decent eye (9% walk-rate), some swing and miss (22% K-rate and 79% zone contact), and a whole mountain of power. 93rd percentile avg exit and max exit velocity, 92nd HardHit%, 94th xwOBA, 89th barrel. His launch angle is slightly low at 13.1 degrees (highest of career) but he has shown he can still hit HRs without an optimal launch angle. Rafael Devers is a very safe bet in 2022 to hit 35 HRs, score 100 runs, drive in 100 runs, and have a .900 OPS. Tier two status and a full round difference in ADP with J-Ram is simply due to their difference in steals. If you are fortunate enough to pick Devers, set it and forget it.
3. Manny Machado (San Diego Padres) 2021: .278/.347/.836, 92 runs, 28 HR, 106 RBI, 12 SB
Fantrax ADP: 28.57
Manny Machado has not played less than 153 games in a full season (2020 Covid season not withstanding) since 2014. He's an ironman who hits for power, steals bags, doesn't quite score or drive in as many runs as you think he should, but is remarkably consistent.
There isn't a lot of upside with a Machado pick. He's 29. I don't expect that he hits more than 30-35 HRs. BUT...velocity and hardhit are both in the 90s. Barrel is 83rd percentile. He's a savvy baserunner, stealing 12 bags despite a sprint speed rank of 36th percentile.
We all know Manny runs when his team is in playoff contention and won't risk injury for the sake of stats. I respect him for this. And it is one reason why he has been such an ironman. Can he get lapped by Alex Bregman this year? Absolutely. Anthony Rendon? Potentially. But Bregman and Rendon is coming off of injury-riddled seasons and can't be counted on. Machado's value is rooted in his reliability. He's a tough dude, who will produce counting stats across the board.
Tier Three
4. Alex Bregman (Houston Astros) 2021: .270/.355/.777, 54 runs, 12 HR, 55 RBI, 1 SB
Fantrax ADP: 64.65
Paying for Alex Bregman as the #4 third baseman means you think he's going to inch back towards 2018 and 2019 production. He averaged 36 HR, 113 RBI, 107 runs, and 7 SB! These numbers would be good for #2 or #3 and a charter membership in tier 2. Bregman had hamstring and quad issues all year, zapping him of his power and ability to run.
He hit the ball into the ground last year as well, his groundball rate his highest since 2016, line drive rate and HR to flyball lowest of his career. He also pulled the ball 52.2% of the time. Someone was trying to hook balls into the Crawford Boxes. His walk rate was also lower than it had been since 2017. However, Bregman's K-rate remained in line with his peak years, as did his exit velocity, his max exit, his barrel rate, and his HardHit rate. Ranking him at #4 says that I believe he will return to something close to what he was in 2018 and 2019. Buy Bregman stock, especially if its lower than pick #64 or 3B #4.
5. Austin Riley (Atlanta Braves) 2021: .303/.367/.898, 91 runs, 33 HR, 107 RBI, 0 SB
Fantrax ADP: 51.09
Conflicted. Chase rate is 22nd percentile. Doesn't walk as much as I prefer (8%). BABIP was .368 last year. These stats don't paint a pretty picture. And yet, he projects a .270 hitter with 30 HR and 100 RBI. Riley barrels the ball, exit velocity and hardhit% are decent, and launch angle, while not totally optimal (14.2°), work to produce a 30 HR bat. We can't expect a .300 average, maybe for the rest of his career. And there is potential volatility year to year due to a below average walk rate (equating to more balls in play) and a roller coaster BABIP. Is Austin Riley an awesome third baseman to roster in fantasy? Absolutely. His floor is .250 with 25-30 HRs and 90-100 RBIs. His ceiling is 40 HRs as he is entering his age-25 year and has room to become a better hitter mentally while in his peak physical years. And yet, he gives me pause as a cornerstone to my fantasy team due to the potential of volatility in his profile and my distaste for subpar walk rates.
6. Nolan Arenado (St.Louis Cardinals) 2021: .255/.312/.807, 81 runs, 34 HR, 105 RBI, 2 SB
Fantrax ADP: 69.98
Thank goodness for counting stats. If you are scouting tools and metrics, Arenado is a great defensive third baseman. But if you are playing fantasy and counting stats matter, Arenado is a consistent performer who has settled in outside of Coors Field as a second tier fantasy third baseman who will provide plenty of runs, HR, and RBI. Gone are the days of a .300 average from Arenado, as his BABIP, barrel rate, and hard hit rate have decreased over the past two full seasons. It is safe to say Nolan Arenado benefited from the thin air of Coors Field and even then, he was a four tool player, lacking speed to steal bags. He is now a three tool, predictable third baseman who, provided good health, will be a contributing member of your fantasy lineup. Not flashy. Winning player.
7. Kris Bryant (Hopefully Seattle Mariners) 2021: .265/.353/.835, 86 runs, 25 HR, 73 RBI, 10 SB. Fantrax ADP: 96.6
After the 2016 season, we all anointed Kris Bryant as the next superstar. 39 HR, 121 runs, 102 RBI, 8 SB, .939 OPS. It was difficult not to. And yet, we have arrived at a place where our expectations for KB need to be tempered. He is a middle of the road fantasy starter at third base. A contributor in all categories and a carrier of none. As you know by now, his willingness to take walks and run a little make him a comfortable player to roster. He won't force you to compensate in any area. And yet...we are left wondering what happened to the 2016 superstar? It's not rocket science. His launch angle, barrel rate, and HardHit rate were both peak and optimal. We may see him reach these again. He just turned 30 years old. But if you get last year's performance in 2022, appreciate the balance and don't let yourself dream on what was.
8. Anthony Rendon (Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim) 2021: .240/.329/.712, 24 runs, 6 HR, 34 RBI, 0 SB. Fantrax ADP: 109.71
Anthony Rendon signed a 7-year, $245 Million contract with the Angels in 2020. He was coming off of a superstar season. .319/.412/1.010, 117 runs, 34 HR, 126 RBI, 5 SB. That's an insane season. Especially at a position on the dirt. He was a World Series Champion.
Finished third in National League MVP voting behind Cody Bellinger and Christian Yelich. And he's still only 31 years old.
But, in half a 2021 season, he posted a .712 OPS. He had hip and triceps injuries. We are betting on a healthy, bounce back season in 2022, something between his superstar 2019 season and last year. 2019 was certainly his career year. But Rendon will be given every opportunity to produce this year, given his contract and track record.
We can assume an 11+% walk rate, a 15% K-rate, and 20 HRs if healthy. He's an elite hitter. There is historical precedence for Rendon to hit 30 HR. And he is surrounded by talent. Trout. Ohtani. Adell. Marsh. This feels like a worthwhile gamble at pick 109. There is an alternate world where I choose Rendon over Arenado and KB. But for now, we'll conservatively rank him as our #8 third baseman.
Tier Four - The Moncada Tier
9. Yoan Moncada (Chicago White Sox) 2021: .263/.375/.787, 74 runs, 14 HR, 61 RBI, 3 SB.
Fantrax ADP: 137.14
I admit. This is my guy. I will try and be as objective as possible. Moncada, Buxton, and Julio Rodriguez are my three must roster players. Full stop. It is an irrational love.
I wrote about this irrational love here: Irrational Love for Under Performing Players (tinojr20.wixsite.com)
The love is not unfounded. Moncada was the top prospect in baseball in 2017. He was the headliner in a trade for Chris Sale in his prime. He allowed you to dream on 30/30
at second or third base. He has swag. A decerning eye at the plate. Power. Speed. So how did all of this talent turn into a back end starting third baseman with a "meh"
profile? Well, for starters, the White Sox don't run. At all. As a team, there were only five teams who attempted fewer stolen bases per game. The Pale Hose attempted .47 steals per game. Moncada's career high is 12 SB. He had 49 and 45 SBs in 2015 and 2016 in the minor leagues. Granted, minor league stolen base numbers do not translate in the majors, but he certainly has better than 12 SB speed. The White Sox unwillingness to steal bases is a huge detriment to Moncada's fantasy value. He also hits line drives, not home runs. His launch angle was 11.3° in 2021. His exit velocity and hard hit rates are above MLB average but not by much.
So what do we conclude? Yoan Moncada is entering his age-27 season. This should be his career peak. A 14% walk-rate is a great place to start. The White Sox were 7th in runs scored last season without full seasons from Eloy Jimenez or Luis Robert. Outside of the White Sox stop sign on the base paths, everything lines up for Moncada to have a huge year. I will be here to witness it. Ride or die (probably die).
10. Justin Turner (Los Angeles Dodgers) 2021: .278/.361/.832, 87 runs, 27 HR, 87 RBI, 3 SB. Fantrax ADP: 180.56
What you see is what you get with Justin Turner. 10% walk-rate, 75 runs, 75 RBI, low 20s HR, .280 hitter. Building consistency throughout your lineup is key. It certainly can allow risk taking with a few roster spots when you can count on a player like Turner to produce. Exit velocity, max exit, hardhit% are all above average, even at age 37. The only real drawback to his game is his lack of speed and steals. There is no upside to picking Justin Turner but you can do a lot worse than Justin Turner as your starting third baseman.
11. Josh Donaldson (Minnesota Twins) 2021: .247/.352/.827, 73 runs, 26 HR, 72 RBI, 0 SB.
Fantrax ADP: 223.04
Mr. Donaldson hits the ball really hard. Like really really hard. Batted ball percentiles: 99th for average exit velocity, 93rd for max exit, 95 for HardHit%, 95th for barrel. Smashing the ball. How can you not when you wear that sweet blue Twins throwback? So why doesn't he produce more? For starters, he pulls a ton of fly balls, resulting in fly outs. His line drive % was almost 5% lower than league average last year. And his pull percentage is much higher than league average, making it much easier for opposing teams to shift and defend Donaldson. In part because of his propensity to hit flys to center and left, his BABIP was .268 last year.
He is 36 years old. He remained healthy last year accumulating 543 plate appearances. Like Turner, assuming health, you can count on 25 HRs, and 70-80 runs and RBIs. He will bring your average/hits category down a bit and he certainly isn't stealing bags. But Donaldson can provide power, OPS, and there is upside with runs and RBIs if Buxton is healthy, and young players like Kepler and Kirilloff continue to progress. Put him in the boring, predictable player category. And feel the power.
Tier Five
12. Eugenio Suarez (Cincinnati Reds) 2021: .198/.286/.713, 71 runs, 31 HR, 79 RBI, 0 SB
Fantrax ADP: 196.73
Eugenio, meet cliff. Cliff, meet Eugenio. Suarez fell off of the proverbial stat cliff in 2021. Coming off of a career year in 2019 which saw him hit 49(!) HRs, drive in 103 runs, and post an OPS of .930, Suarez slid under the Mendoza line in 2021, had a sub .300 OPS, and tanked a lot of fantasy baseball teams. So what gives?
The answer is not much. His walk rate was slightly lower, K-rate slightly higher. But these shifts were negligible. His EV and launch angle were very similar to 2019, his barrel% was actually 2.2% higher, and his HardHit% was the same. The three stats where there was more change were his pull percent which went from 52% in 2019 to 47.2% in 2021, his medium contact vs hard contact rates, medium increased from 38.3% in 2019 to 49.6% in 2021 and hard decreased from 46.7% in 2019 to 34.8% in 2021, and his BABIP (.312 in 2019 and .224 in 2021).
Can Eugenio get his mojo back? It certainly seems like pulling a few more fly balls and getting a little luckier with balls in play could get his average back up closer to .240/.250 and his HRs between 35 and 40. This would be a very useful third baseman in fantasy. He is rated below Donaldson and Turner because we are looking for a huge rebound season but if he does rediscover the 2019 magic even a little bit, he will vault back in to the top 10. He's a worthwhile flier later in the draft if you can get him.
13. Luis Urias (Milwaukee Brewers) 2021: .249/.345/.790, 77 runs, 23 HR, 75 RBI, 5 SB
Fantrax ADP: 187.06
As a prospect, Luis Urias was a plus hit tool little power middle infielder. He tweaked his approach slightly and viola! 23 HRs!!! Most notably he increased his launch angle to 14.2° from 9.9° (2019), his barrel rate was more than double what it had been previously, and his HardHit% increased by 8.2%. These gains were adjustment driven and should continue in 2022. Subsequently, he hit more balls in the air and pulled the ball almost half of the time. Similar to Marcus Semien, Urias was good at hitting the ball to the small part of the ballpark, maximizing his contact and power. He's heading into his age-25 season, has demonstrating the willingness and ability to make big adjustments, and he takes walks. Oh yeah, he also has 2B and SS eligibility.
There is an outside chance Luis Urias hits 30 HRs, moves higher in the lineup, scores 100 runs, and maybe even drives in 100? Dream on? I'm a believer.
14. Matt Chapman (Oakland Athletics) 2021: .210/.314/.717, 75 runs, 27 HR, 72 RBI, 3 SB.
Fantrax ADP: 153.14
Unfortunately, fantasy baseball does not reward gold or platinum gloves.
Chapman joined Suarez on the 2021 cliff. He went from .249 (2019) to .210 (2021), lost .103 in slugging, 9 HRs, 27 runs, and 19 RBIs. Oof. Walks went up, strikeouts went up, lost 3 mph on his average EV, and 6.1% on his HardHit%. He also saw his Hard% become Med%.
It is worth asking the question if Matt Chapman's defensive reputation and scoring 100+ runs two years in a row inflate his fantasy stock. He's going ahead of Justin Turner, Josh Donaldson, Eugenio Suarez, and Luis Urias according to Fantrax ADP. His numbers took a nose dive in a very similar way to Suarez. The difference is Suarez didn't lose the steam on his batted balls the way Chapman did. Bad luck for Suarez. Not so lucky for Chapman.
15. Ke'Bryan Hayes (Pittsburgh Pirates) 2021: .257/.316/.689, 49 runs, 6 HR, 9 SB.
Fantrax ADP: 160.41
Ke'Bryan Hayes has incredible talent. He's a well-rounded third baseman, with a plus glove, 50 raw power, 55 hit tool, and 60 speed. He will post double digit HRs and SBs this season. He's 25 years old.
So...what's the deal? Ke'Bryan Hayes is yet another small tweak candidate.
He would jump into Tier Three with more upside potential if he can implement a Luis Urias-like swing adjustment. His launch angle in 2021 was 2.6°(!!!). 56.7% groundball rate! That's a big adjustment to make. And we can be sure that the Pirates organization and his father, former MLB third baseman Charlie Hayes, are working to help Ke'Bryan to elevate the ball. His average exit velo, max exit velo, HardHit%, and speed are all 70th plus percentile.
I'm rooting for Ke'Bryan Hayes to make the adjustment. He's an absolute steal at pick 160 if he can increase his LA, even slightly.
16. Ryan McMahon (Colorado Rockies) 2021: .254/.331/.779, 80 runs, 23 HR, 86, 6 SB.
Fantrax ADP: 185.32
Second and third base eligible, Ryan McMahon is a nice player to have around. He increased his launch angle this past year to 14.3° from 9.2° in 2020 helping him to reduce his groundball rate by 12% and build a better hitter profile for Coors Field. He is 27 years old, in the middle of his prime. His exit velocities and HardHit % are above average. He's not fast, but he'll swipe a couple of bases each season as well. Nothing about his profile screams abnormal from 2021 with the exception of his launch angle increasing. We can realistically expect McMahon to produce similar numbers. Steamer projects one less homer, .003 decrease in batting average, .003 decrease in slugging. Quite literally the same performace in 32 fewer plate appearances. If McMahon is your starting third baseman, you are going to want to roster a higher upside alternative as well. But McMahon as the first back up off of the bench can be mighty nice player to plug in, specifically at home and against right handed pitching.
Honorable Mention
Adelberto Mondesi (KC Royals) - not ranked only because I have no idea what to write.
DJ LeMahieu (New York Yankees)
Josh Rojas (Arizona D'Backs)
Abraham Toro - (Your Seattle Mariners)
Jeimer Candelario (Detroit Tigers)
Alec Bohm (Philadelphia Phillies)
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