Yoan Moncada. Byron Buxton. Keston Hiura. Jarred Kelenic. We all have players, usually highly-touted prospects, who we must have. IN EVERY LEAGUE. The fear of our guy becoming a superstar on someone else's fantasy team ranks up there with tornadoes, elevators, and large rodents. We will decline offers for "our guys" without even looking at who was offered. It is bad business. It is certainly not rational. And ultimately, it can cost your team improvement and championships.
I love Yoan Moncada. He is(maybe was?) fast. He was the darling of the 2016/2017 prospect rankings. Moncada was, "Robinson Cano with more speed," according to Jonathan Mayo. You could dream on 30/30 at second or third base. Strong, fast, twitchy, switch hitter. The mystery of a Cuban prospect, knowing little about his pedigree other than the $31.5 million the Boston Red Sox paid to acquire him when he became available. I had to work to acquire Moncada in one league, and drafted him in round three of a 16-team H2H league where we keep 15 (Somehow, i lucked into Acuna and Tatis Jr. as well). And as much as I love Acuna and Tatis, Moncada remains my favorite player despite developing into your standard selective hitter with some power and little speed.
In 2021, Yoan Moncada hit .263 with 14 HRs, 61 RBIs, 3(!) SBs, and a .787 OPS. Not exactly the 30/30 monster of my fantasy baseball dreams. He did have a 14% walk rate and 122 wRC+. He has value. But Fantasypros.com currently ranks him as the #15 Third Baseman. CBS barely has him in the top 12 (one of three writers has him in their top 12). Not exactly a cornerstone or a building block for you Fantasy Baseball juggernaut. And yet, I can't fathom a season without Yoan Moncada. I admit the dream of 30 SBs has gone up in big flames. But will you allow me to dream on .290/.390/.500? Is it realistic to think that Moncada, in his age-27 season could hit 30 bombs? If i didn't keep Moncada as one of my 15, and he did hit 30 bombs and slug .500, I would be heartbroken. Legitimately heartbroken.
The real question is this...
Why is it that as competitive as I am, as we all are who play fantasy baseball, that a championship WITH Yoan Moncada on my team is worth 1.5 rings and a championship with Austin Riley or Alex Bregman or Justin Turner is worth .8 rings?? Is this irrational?
Who is your Yoan Moncada? Your Byron Buxton?
I think one aspect of what we do that is completely irrational is this "future-casting" pattern we apply over and over the players in the minor leagues. This type of thinking, this random application of numbers ("oh, he's a 20/20 guy") completely ignores the reality of things like playing time, coaching, data, level of competition, injuries, confidence, to name a few. How are we to know how these young guys will handle not being the best for the first time in their lives? How can we know how they will handle failure or limited playing time or playing out of position?
The real answer is, of course, we can't. But we do it. Repeatedly. As a community and individually.
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