The lockout has left us all with a lot of time to ponder whether Aaron Ashby will have a significant role with the Milwaukee Brewers and rack up innings as their number four starter, be a set-up guy and provide value in holds leagues, or just a ratio monster in your last pitcher slot hoping he has a larger role down the stretch. Obviously, questions like these require more research. Creating our own rankings requires more research. And seeing how I love data, I decided to create my own fantasy database heading into the 2022 season.
I've created two tables for each position, one with the most pertinent fantasy stats and one with more deep dive advanced metrics to create a richer player narrative, or color in the coloring book, so to speak. This database wasn't created for public consumption. I created it so that I could quickly resource the stats I needed when pondering important thoughts like the value of Aaron Ashby in 2022.
The database was created with mySQL.
So back to Andy Ashby, the following is a video of my quick Andy Ashby query...
So what can we conclude from this quick Aaron Ashby query?
He's young, his xFIP was 1.5 runs less than his ERA (meaning he was a much better pitcher than his ERA indicates), he has a 3.3 K/BB ratio (which is good, especially for a 23 year old pitcher), his K percent was 29.3%, he gave up one HR every five fly balls (which is way above league average), he is an extreme groundball pitcher (61%) which combined with a 29% K-rate predicts future success (high ground ball rate combined with high K-rate is a positive predictor), and his LOB% was much lower than the league average meaning he was either/and unlucky/not great at allowing runners on base to score. He also ranked in the 6th percentile in fastball spin and 59th in breaking ball spin. At first glance his low fastball spin rate would indicate a potential lack of "stuff." However, an extremely low spin rate on a fastball actually indicates sinking movement and partially explains his 61% GB rate (meaning this is a good thing!).
So what does all of this mean? It was only 31.2 innings, a small sample size to be sure. He's on a team with Brandon Woodruff (5th in Cy Young voting), Corbin Burnes (Cy Young award winner), and Freddy Peralta (who allowed 84 hits in 144.1 innings!) as the front three of a stellar rotation and Adrian Houser and Eric Lauer who posted sub 3.25 ERAs last year. Not sure what this means. The Brewer bullpen also features a number of lights-out relievers in Josh Hader, Devin Williams, Jake Cousins, and John Curtiss.
Most of my leagues roster 30 players, keep 15 each year, and have holds as a singular category. Ashby should be valuable on either team as a swing pitcher helping my ratios. However, opportunity to start or provide holds won't come easily. I would draft Ashby if i truly believed in his ability AND didn't trust the health of the Brewers staff OR saw a Hader trade on the horizon (potentially moving Williams to closer and creating holds opportunities for Ashby). I will keep an eye on the Brewers staff during spring training and put Ashby on my watch list.
This database has been a blast to build, and it allows me to answer many of the silly baseball questions in my head throughout the day. In the future, as minor league information is more readily available, I'd like to build one for prospects too.
Tomorrow, catcher previews...
2 seam heat map:
It is interesting that Savant classifies Ashby's 2-seam fastball as a 'sinker' - but as your post describes that is the outcome the pitch produces so that makes sense. He essentially does not throw a 4 seam fastball (only thrown 11 times all season) and when he does he consistently places it above the zone.
The 2 seamer is showing as a slightly above average pitch. The vertical movement is above average and has premium velocity.
Looking at the savant heat map for the 2 seam fastball I would suggest he needs to refine his command of the pitch as he is leaving it middle, middle at times and with the lack of horizontal movement its getting crushed. This is…