There has been a shake up in the top five since January with Matt Olson and his move to Atlanta moving him up from three to two. Olson slated to hit third in the Braves lineup with Ozzie Albies in front of him and Austin Riley behind. Both his runs and RBIs should increase going from the Oakland offense to Atlanta.
Pete Alonso moves ahead of Freddie Freeman despite Freeman's move to Los Angeles.
Freeman has missed SEVEN games in the last three full seasons, he is entering his age 32 season, and he is now on a team with multiple positive first base options. The National League DH will certainly help Freeman stay in the lineup as will his determination to not take days off but the Dodgers are smart and forward thinking. Freeman is signed through 2027 and the Dodgers can play Max Muncy, Cody Bellinger, or Edwin Rios at first base. I anticipate Freeman playing closer to 135-140 games per year moving forward, reducing his ability to accumulate runs and RBIs.
Jose Abreu moved down two spots from fifth to seventh due in part to the White Sox acquisition of AJ Pollock. Pollack moves Andrew Vaughn into more of a 1B/DH role instead of corner outfield at bats. The White Sox now have Gavin Sheets, Vaughn, and Abreu to split 1B/DH plate appearences. Finally, Abreu is 35 years old. If Sheets and Vaughn begin to hit up to their potential, Abreu will see his plate appearances reduced, quite possibly producing more quality but fewer RBIs, which have been his calling card for the past few years.
Kyle Schwarber, starts the run of powerful sluggers, followed by Josh Bell, Muncy, Rhys Hoskins, Jared Walsh, and Brandon Belt. Belt drops from 9th to 13th due to injury heading into the season and the limited plate appearances last season. This group is more about manager preference and which categories you are trying to fill with your first baseman. Schwarber is expected to lead off for the Phillies so runs and OBP will be strengths for him whereas the others will be counted on to be more run producing types.
Rounding out the top 16 are Anthony Rizzo, CJ Cron, and Miguel Sano. Rizzo is essentially a poor-man's Schwarber hitting at the top of the Yankees order with a less power. Cron has been much better at home (Coors OPS: 1.073 vs Away OPS: .734) so you have to manage him closely and is a better fit in daily leagues than weekly lineup leagues. Sano is seen as a lottery ticket because of his 80 grade raw power and propensity to strike out but the argument can be made that Sano isn't much worse than Joey Gallo (2021: 38 HRs, .808 OPS in 616 PAs) vs Sano (30 HRs, .778 OPS in 532 PAs). The Twins offense will be better if Buxton can stay healthy and with the addition of Carlos Correa creating more chances for Sano to drive in runs.
The top eight spots have seen quite a bit of change. Olson, Alonso, and Schwarber are first baseman on the ascent with Freddie Freeman, Jose Abreu, and Brandon Belt on the decline. In 15-team leagues, I would feel comfortable with any of the top 11 first baseman, wanting to pair the bottom five with another options to play matchups and gamble on youth (i.e. Spencer Torkelson).
The first base dynasty rankings look similar at the top to redraft but with the addition of Spencer Torkelson at number three. Olson moves ahead of Tork in our dynasty rankings due to his change of home park and offense. Andrew Vaughn and Triston Casas join the top 10 in dynasty, expecting each to become big run producers in the next few years. Age drops Abreu a bit more and lands Bobby Dalbac at number 16 (and no, big swing and miss sluggers are not required at 16). There should be many options at first base for dynasty players for years to come. Established stardom or ascending youth are available as low as #9. Finally, watch for great hitters without an established defensive position like Miguel Vargas and Orelvis Martinez to potentially end up at first base. Those two in particular could shake up the top 16 dynasty rankings.
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