Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Toronto) 2022: .274/.339/.818, 90 runs, 32 HR, 97 RBI, 8 SB, 8.2% BB, 16.4% K
Vladito. #1. Over Goldy. Over Freeman. Over the world. We are well aware of his 52.1% ground ball rate, his 34.2% chase rate, and his 48.1% pull rate. We don't care. Vladito is #1.
He's 23 years old. He's still figuring it all out. How to lift the ball. How to stay in shape. What position he is playing. And yet, he continues to produce in all categories. He even provided 8 SB last season.
Vladitio is an elite talent. Bat to ball skill combined with his strength and power is rare. In a down year he provided 90 runs, 32 HR, 97 RBI, and 8 SB. More than half of his batted balls were considered hard hit. His max exit velocity was a mile and a half per hour harder than the next qualified first baseman. His average exit velocity was second only to Matt Olson. And he had a .289 BABIP despite hitting the ball on the ground 52.1% of the time (a higher BABIP should be expected with a high GB%). Even though he's right handed, expect an increase in his batting average due to the new shift rules. Finally, his percentile ranks in batted ball metrics were phenomenal.
aEV: 96th
mEV: 99th
HH: 94th
barrel: 79th
His father is a Hall of Famer. The apple didn't fall far from the tree. He hits third in a lineup which scored the 4th most runs last season. He was a bit unlucky last season and pounded the ball into the ground. And despite that, he continued to produce as a top 5 first baseman and a top 20 overall hitter. I'm betting he will be a top 5 player, overall, in 2023. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is both my #1 redraft first baseman and my #1 dynasty first baseman.
2. Freddie Freeman (Los Angeles Dodgers) 2022: .325/.407/.918, 117 runs, 21 HR, 100 RBI, 13 SB, 11.9 BB%, 14.4% K
When does the metronome stop? Outside of the Covid-2020 year, Freddie Freeman has hit no fewer than 21 home runs (last year), driven in no fewer than 84 runs (with four years of 100+ RBIs), stolen between 6 and 13 bases, hit between .295 and .341, and has had OPS between .892 and .989 from 2017 thru 2022.
Freeman is entering his age 33 season, yet he has shown no signs of slowing down. In fact, his 117 runs were the second most of his career (120 runs in 2021), 100 RBI was third most of his career, and 13 steals were his career high. His 14.4% K rate was second lowest of his career. Freddie Freeman is a very safe bet to provide tier one production at first base this year and beyond. The Dodgers offense will continue to be elite as long as Mookie Betts and Will Smith remain. In fact, very talented prospects are on the way to fortify the lineup, giving Freeman a realistic shot at 100 runs and 100 RBIs in 2023. He had 373 plate appearances batting second and 335 plate appearances batting third last season.
Finally, Freddie Freeman's batted ball metrics are incredibly balanced and difficult to find reasons for doubt or regression. He walks at a 12% rate, had the second lowest K rate of any of the top 16 first baseman, trailing only Vinnie Pasquantino, doesn't chase, posted an elite 88% zone contact rate, hits the ball hard (91.3 aEV, 112.3 mEV), and has a balanced GB/FB mix and spray chart. Maybe we should check to see if he's a robot?
3. Pete Alonso (NY Mets) 2022: .271/.352/.869, 95 Runs, 40 HR, 131 RBI, 5 SB, 9.8% BB, 18.7% K
Pete Alonso continues to evolve as power hitter. While he appears to be a lock for 90 runs, 35+ HR, and 100 RBI, his underlying metrics in 2022 show that there may yet another level Alonso can reach. He became an even more extreme fly ball hitter (43.9% FB), posted the highest launch angle of his career (18.2°), and yet, Alonso also had his career best zone contact rate (87.8%) AND his lowest SwStr (10.7%) and lowest K rate (18.7%)
In short, Pete Alonso is hitting more fly balls and striking out less which is a recipe for slugger success. The three batters before him in the lineup, Nimmo, Marte, and Lindor will be the same in 2023 as they were in 2022 and most of the roster is unchanged. Right field at Citi Field is being moved in eight feet as well. 14 of Alonso's 40 homers were to center and right field. Expect a slight uptick in his opposite field homers next season.
Pete Alonso feels like a lock to hit .260/.350/.850, 90 runs, 35 HR, 100 RBI with potential for a lot more. He hit 53 HRs in 2019. For the next few years, Alonso can be a builiding block for your championship fantasy squad.
4. Paul Goldschmidt (St.Louis) 2022: .317/.404.981, 106 Runs, 35 HR, 115 RBI, 7 SB, 12.1 BB%, 21.7% K
I genuinely don't know what to do with Paul Goldschmidt. Age 35 season. Zone contact rate of 81.8% last season. He misses in the zone and is old. And yet, Goldy was the best fantasy first baseman last season and may indeed be the same in 2023.
12.1% walk rate. Sub 10% K rate. Optimal launch angle (15.7°). 1:1 GB/FB rate. I love all of this. And Busch Stadium was much more hitter friendly in 2022 as it had been historically. But I wonder how long Goldy can keep this up? He's been some version of great since 2015. Eight years later he remains elite. His .317 average and .368 BABIP appear sustainable despite carrying a high BABIP over his career. Speed declines as players age so expecting him to be among the stolen base leaders for first baseman may also be in the past.
I've been burned thinking Goldy was on the decline once...in 2019. And I won't do it again. He's not the G.O.A.T. like Mr. Brady, but he may be on that TB12 Method the way he continues to rake. I do expect Vladito to ascend, Alonso to have one or two more peak years, and value Freeman a tad bit higher, but doubt Paul Goldschmidt at your own risk. He's our #4 first baseman and squarely in tier one.
Tier Two
5. Vinnie Pasquantino (Kansas City) 2022: .295/.383/.832, 298 PA, 25 runs, 10 HR, 26 RBI, 1 SB, 11.7% BB, 11.4% K
Is "Italian Beef" not the best nickname for a 6'4", 245 pound first baseman with the last name Pasquantino? And somehow George Brett dubbed him, "The Italian Nightmare." he was also called "Italian Breakfast" after former Royals first baseman, Billy Butler's nickname, "Country Breakfast." My vote is for "Italian Beef."
"Italian Beef" is soon to be a tier one fantasy first baseman. One look at his metrics make this abundantly clear. As a 24 year old rookie, he did the following:
11.7% BB rate
11.4% K rate
92% zone contact and 6.6% SwStr
91.2 mph average exit velocity
46.9% Hard Hit
40.9% Ground Ball vs 40% Fly Ball
This is the baseline for an elite hitter. Vinnie walks more than he strikes out, does not swing and miss at pitches in the strike zone, has a below average swing and miss rate, hits the ball very hard, and has a great mix of ground balls and fly balls which most often leads to high average and power. There are a lot of similarities between Vinnie and Freddie Freeman. Great hitters who have elite hand/eye coordination, don't have to sell out for power to hit homers, and are willing to take base hits and drive their batting average. The two discerable differences between Freeman and Pasquantino are the speed (steals) and Freeman's willingness and ability to go the opposite way.
Vinnie Pasquantino should be a mainstay for the Royals and huge run producer in the middle of the lineup for through the 2020s. He is surrounded by other offensive talents in Bobby Witt Jr., MJ Melendez, and Salavdor Perez with a few decent hitting prospects on the way. A triple slash of .300/.400/.500 with 30 HRs is somewhat realistic for "Italian Beef," leading to tier one status in 2024. I will be taking Pasquantino in any redraft league I can, dipped, with sweet AND hot peppers.
6. Matt Olson (Atlanta) 2022: .240/.325/.802, 699 PA, 86 runs, 34 HR, 103 RBI, 0 SB, 10.7% BB, 24.3% K
Matt Olson was the apple of our eye this time last year. His star hasn't faded much, but he didn't ascend to the top of tier one as we expected. In 2021 (compared to 2020), Olson cut his K rate almost in half (from 31.4% to 16.8%) and increased his zone contact by more than 10% (from 72.9% to 83.4%). Most of his other metrics remained steady, but these improvements led to a season of .271/.371/.911, with 101 runs, 39 HR, and 111 RBIs. This was his age 27 season, in an enormous home ball park (Oakland). His trade to Atlanta, a better offense with a more hitter friendly home park, could have been the start of his career year. We certainly thought so ranking him as our #2 first baseman. And while 86 runs, 34 HR, and 103 RBI is nothing to sneeze at, it wasn't quite what we expected.
Last season, Olson split the difference with his K rate between 2020 and 2021 finishing at 24.3%. His Swinging strike rate was 12.8% and his zone contact rate was below 80% at 79.2%. He continues to hit the ball extremely hard averaging 92.9 mph. He's going to hit home runs. He's in a dynamite offense which ranked third in runs scored last season without a healthy Ronald Acuna Jr or Ozzie Albies. We can expect 90 runs, 35 HRs, and 100+ RBIs. The question is whether he is the .270 hitter with a low K rate or if he will stay in the .240s. The answer to the question will let us know if there is a 40 HR season in his bat AND whether he will finally become a tier one first fantasy first baseman.
coming tomorrow...
Torkelson and beyond...
Comments