Tier One
1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (San Diego Padres) 2021: .282/.364/.975, 99 runs, 42 HR, 97 RBI, 25 SB
Fantrax ADP: 2.38
If I could wish continued health for one player in MLB it would be Fernando Tatis Jr. Power. Speed. Energy. And he's helped shift perspective on baseball's unwritten rules, making it ok to celebrate, flip bats, talk smack. Tatis and Acuna are the two most exciting players in baseball, in my humble opinion. My one worry with regards to Tatis is his health. His left shoulder has been dislocated off and on, creating speculation that the Padres may be better off putting Tatis in the outfield. Tatis has expressed his desire to remain at shortstop, but it is a much more physically demanding position, putting his shoulder, and his ability to post incredible numbers at risk.
In 2021, Tatis hit 42 HRs and stole 25 bases in 546 plate appearances. He's 23 years old. He plays shortstop. His profile is eye-opening. He hits the ball really hard, runs really fast, swings and misses, and strikes out often. Avg exit, max exit, and HardHit% were all 98th percentile last season. Sprint speed was 96th and walk rate 81st. However, his whiff% was 3rd percentile and K% 13th. Tatis is such a dynamic, powerful player. If we can assume 140 games, we are looking at a 45 HR, 25 steal shortstop with five years or so of peak performance. As much as I love the shortstop position in general, no one comes close to Fernando Tatis Jr. Not Bobby Witt Jr. Not Bo Bichette. Not Wander Franco. There's power/speed. And then there's Fernando Tatis Jr. He's my number one player off of the board. Overall.
Tier Two
2. Bo Bichette (Toronto Blue Jays) 2021: .298/.343/.828, 121 runs, 29 HR, 102 RBI, 25 SB
Fantrax ADP: 7.6
Another shortstop in his early 20s who is ballin' out. We are looking at a 100 run, 30 HR, 100 RBI, 20 SB shortstop for the next six years. However, his profile makes me squirm, ever so slightly. Especially compared to Tatis. But he is still worthy of first round consideration.
Bichette's walk rate has settled in around 6% and his 43% chase rate was in the 3rd percentile of MLB in 2021. He swings at everything. He hits the ball hard (85th for avg exit velo and 83rd for HardHit%). But there is the potential for more extreme variability with regards to average and power. Chasing pitches and not walking allows the pitcher to throw fewer strikes, giving Bichette fewer good pitches to hit. His ability to make adjustments this year will determine whether he can repeat on his 2021 successes. If he can be slightly more decerning at the plate and increase his launch angle (7.3° in 2021) Bichette can improve upon his top 10 numbers in 2022. He won't approach Tatis Jr. but he will distance himself from tier three.
Tier Three
3. Xander Bogaerts (Boston Red Sox) 2021: .295/.370/.863, 90 runs, 23 HR, 79 RBI, 5 SB
Fantrax ADP: 44.6
There was a time when I owned Xander Bogaerts in all seven of my fantasy leagues. 2016 I believe. I saw .300/.400/.900 for Xander and for me. As pretty of a right-handed swing as you will see. The ability to hit the ball the opposite way with power. Double digit steal potential. I now own one dynasty share. And while he hasn't reached the heights I believed he could, I still wish I had Bogaerts in more than one league.
So why does Xander Bogaerts seem to fly under the fantasy radar? He plays in a big market for a storied franchise. And he flashes a million watt smile. My belief is that the incredibly high expectations early in his career and the consistency of his statistics year after year have created a valuable but less exciting fantasy profile. He's going to hit .290. He's going to hit 25 HRs. He's going to score 90 runs and drive in 90. His career triple slash line is .290/.353/.812. But he isn't a superstar on the Tatis or Trea Turner level we thought he could be. I bet he will finish 2022 very close to his career triple slash.
Interestingly, his profile has shifted ever so slightly. His chase rate was a career high 34% last season and his swing% was the highest since 2015. Finally, his 9.3% SwStr% was highest since 2014. As good of a hitter as Bogaerts is, seeing him swing a bit more can be a positive thing as long as he continues to approach with a discerning eye. He is a professional hitter who may give up a little average as he gets older but could add a little more power. Put Xander down for his career averages and enjoy the ride. Just know it is more one of a Cadillac El Dorado cruising down Pac Highway. Smooth and predictable but without much excitement.
4. Trevor Story (Parts Unknown) 2021: .251/.329/.801, 88 runs, 24 HR, 75 RBI, 20 SB
Fantrax ADP: 49.62
There are a lot of questions needing answers if we want to rank Trevor Story at number four and draft him at his current ADP of 49.
Question 1: "How much did Story's right elbow inflammation bother him during the 2021 season?" If the answer is, "a ton," then we can partially dismiss an average and OPS which were subpar by his career standards.
Question 2: "Is he a product of Coors Field?" By now, we know Coors Field helps average and OPS because of its outfield dimensions (larger outfield means greater area to hit the ball and greater area for outfielders to defend) but does not necessarily mean more home runs.
2021 Trevor Story splits:
Home: 307 PA, 11 HR, .296/.365/.880
Away: 256 PA, 13 HR, .203/.292/.718
There's enough difference between home and away to worry me. That said, he and Tim Anderson are the two shortstops in tier three who offer decent speed. Trevor Story has provided 20+ HRs and 20+ SBs in the last three full major league seasons. His home run power should continue to play no matter where he signs and speed doesn't care which park you play in. Pay close attention to where Story signs. Houston has been rumored as a front runner, given their need at shortstop and Trevor Story growing up in Texas. But it is important to note that Houston ranked 26th out of 30 in team stolen bases attempted per game last season. If Story signs with Houston and steals 10 bags instead of 20, his fantasy value drops considerably. I like Story as a starting fantasy shortstop and his home run power will survive the move. But his injury in 2021, his move away from Coors Field, and the propensity his new team to attempt stolen bases will all play a huge role in what story we are telling about Trevor come this time 2023.
5. Carlos Correa (Whoever Pays Him The Most) 2021: .279/.366/.850, 104 runs, 26 HR, 92 RBI, 0 SB. Fantrax ADP: 83.37
The days of Carlos Correa stealing bases are long gone. He stole double digit bags in 2015 and 2016 but has yet to steal more than three bases in a season since. He also hasn't posted an average above .279 since 2017. So why include Correa in tier three? He hits the ball hard, he takes walks, and his metrics say his stats are not matching his potential production.
Correa's avg exit velocity was 71st percentile, max exit velocity 97th and HardHit 63rd last season. His xBA was 96th percentile and xSLG 78th. He also posted 12% walk-rate. .300/.400/.900 is a realistic season for Carlos Correa. He's 27 years old. He has at least two big years ahead. Give me the shortstop who hits for power, takes walks, and doesn't chase. His barrel rate was 9%, good for 60th percentile so where he signs and what park he calls home will help to determine his value in 2022. Correa hits the ball to all fields so the left field dimensions will not be the sole determinant from a park perspective. Carlos Correa may have already peaked. He may never be a superstar. However, in my opinion he may have one more step to take, potentially elevating him to the top of tier three shortstop status. I would invest in Correa at his current ADP provided you can supplement stolen bases at another position.
6. Francisco Lindor (New York Mets) 2021: .230/.322/.734, 73 runs, 20 HR, 63 RBI, 10 SB
Fantrax ADP: 59.2
Last year was Year One of Lindor's 10-year $341 Million contract with the New York Mets. Needless to say, the locals were a bit frustrated with the results. Lindor had never hit below .273 in a full season. Last season he hit .230. Lindor AVERAGED 107 runs, 30 HR, and 20 SB in his previous four full seasons (Covid 2020 not considered). His 11% walk-rate and 18% K-rate were both career highs. So what's the deal Francisco?
The answer? Not much. His batted ball profile was solid. 75th percentile for average exit velocity, 87th max exit velocity, 71st HardHit. xwOBA 67th percentile, xSLG 65th. Launch angle was 14.4°, very near optimal. His BABIP was .248, low and unlucky by league average standards. Lindor has run low(ish) BABIPs over the past four years but nothing as low as last year. And finally, the one area where there was a more demonstrative shift was his SwStr%. From 2016 to 2019 his SwStr% ranged from 6.4% to 7.7%. Last year, Lindor's SwStr% was 10.5%, still under league average (11.2%) but highest of his career. Was Francisco Lindor pressing to justify his huge contract? Was he adjusting to National League pitching? I would argue yes to both.
Francisco Lindor's current Fantrax ADP of 59.2 suggests a bounce back year. Potentially 85-90% of what he was at peak in Cleveland. He's 28 years old. His power and speed remain. 100 runs, 30 HR, and 20 SB were his norm. Can we expect that? I doubt 20 steals is coming back, at least regularly. But I fully expect the power and with a better offense in Queens, signing Starling Marte, Eduardo Escobar and Mark Canha this past off-season, Lindor will have every opportunity to score 100 runs and drive in close to 100. I'm cautiously drafting Francisco Lindor right around his 59.2 ADP.
7. Corey Seager (Texas Rangers) 2021: .306/.394/.915, 54 runs, 16 HR, 57 RBI, 1 SB
Fantrax ADP: 67.97
This is high for a player with health questions. No doubt. Corey Seager is the best combination of average and power of the shortstops remaining. A case can be made for Anderson but I believe Seager can take another step forward in the power department without sacrificing average. I'm also a sucker for a 12% walk-rate coupled with a 16% K-rate.
From a batted ball standpoint, Seager was in the 80th percentile for avg exit velo, 95th for max EV, and 89th for HardHit. Additionally, he was in the 81st for barrel%. His xwOBA was in the 93rd and xSLG in the 89th. Hitting the ball this hard and taking walks make Seager a candidate to break out in 2022. We can reasonably expect the Texas Rangers to protect their $325 million investment. This means managing his workload if need be. Even if we get 130-140 games from Corey Seager, we can reasonably expect him to hit 25 HRs, runs + RBI = 190, and hit .300/.390/.900. Seager is the best rate stat shortstop left on the board and is a bit more valuable in Roto than in H2H. But he is my number seven shortstop in either format and I look forward to his first season in Texas.
8. Tim Anderson (Chicago White Sox) 2021: .309/.338/.806, 94 runs, 17 HR, 61 RBI, 18 SB
Fantrax ADP: 57.13
Tim Anderson makes one question all of their profile biases. When and how is a high BABIP sustainable? Can you spend a high draft pick on a player who walks only 4% of the time? How about a player with a career high of 64 RBIs? And yet, we are currently drafting Tim Anderson in round 5 according to Fantrax ADP. Why you ask? Because Timmy A hits .300 with high teens HR and 20 SB, that's why. His BABIP has ranged from .372 to .399 over the past three years and his batting average between .309 and .335. Three years of history becomes a pattern, not an anomoly. He's also the lead-off hitter in the 6th highest scoring offense (2021). He will never score as many runs as you would expect because of he doesn't walk much and his 4.3° launch angle helps him spray line drives but suppresses his ability to hit homers, but Tim Anderson is still a highly productive hitter in an outstanding offense. At age 28, we can expect a few more years of production, before his speed and average wane. Bank a .300 average with 15-20 HRs and 20 SBs from Mr. Anderson.
Tier Four
9. Wander Franco (Tampa Bay Rays) 2021: .288/.347/.810, 53 runs, 7 HR, 39 RBI, 2 SB
Fantrax ADP: 43.57
80 hit tool. Something you can dream on. Wander Franco's value is his hit tool. He's not real fast. He hasn't shown a ton of power. Fangraphs grades his potential game power as 60 and raw power as 55. But his bat to ball skill is elite. ELITE. As a 20-year old rookie, in 308 plate appearances, he swung and missed at a 7.4% rate, over 2% better than league average. 8% walk-rate. 12% K-rate. He's a .300 hitter. How many home runs can we expect this year? 15? If he can become a little more selective and force pitchers to throw more pitches, he may find more strikes to drive. Given the talented coaches in Tampa Bay and their ability to teach and make adjustments, AND Franco's talents, it would not be surprising to anyone to see Wander tweak his approach slightly to become more selective, and possibly add a little to his launch angle.
At his peak, we can expect Franco to hit 25-30 HRs and well over .300. Runs and RBIs will be dependent on the surrounding cast. But for a 2022 redraft, I recommend avoiding him at his current Fantrax ADP of 43.57. It's an expensive dream.
10. Bobby Witt Jr. (KC Royals) 2021 minors: .290/.361/.936, 99 runs, 33 HR, 97 RBI, 29 SB.
Fantrax ADP: 109.18
Five tools. Five categories. Bobby Witt Jr. has speed, power, will eventually stick at shortstop, and is 21 years old. He's as close as a can't miss as they come. There is a bit of swing and miss in his profile which will impact his batting average but he has shown the ability to make adjustments and will continue to learn. He will get 500 plate appearances in Kansas City. We don't know if he will play third base, shortstop, or second base. But his initial eligibility will be at short.
So what can we expect from a fantasy stat standpoint? Steamer projects 71 runs, 24 HR, 75 RBI, and 18 SB. That's a very good season and he's only 21. He may struggle early. The range of outcomes is greater for Witt than any other player on this list. But he is clearly a fun and incredibly exciting player to have on your team and will provide power and the fantasy baseball holy grail, stolen bases.
11. Willy Adames (Milwaukee Brewers) 2021: .262/.337/.818, 77 runs, 25 HR, 73 RBI, 5 SB
Fantrax ADP: 138.68
Willy Adames and Dansby Swanson had similar seasons. Adames came close to Swanson's counting stats in 98 fewer plate appearances. Willy Adames also became a much better hitter when he was traded from Tampa Bay to Milwaukee. In the second half of the season, Adames had a triple slash of .280/.358/.866. Was it the coaches? Change of scenery? Home park? Whatever it was, Adames raked. He finished 2021 in the 72nd percentile for HardHit% and 76th percentile for barrel%. I'm not sure that second half Willy is the Willy we get in 2022. But he will hit 20 HRs, score and drive in 80, not kill your average, add a few steals. Not the exciting player that Bobby Witt Jr. is, but a winning player for your team if you can use draft capital in earlier rounds wisely. Wait on Adames and build out the rest of your roster. Smartly.
12. Brandon Crawford (SF Giants) 2021: .298/.373/.895, 79 runs, 24 HR, 90 RBI, 11 SB.
Fantrax ADP: 206.86
Can 34-year old shortstops get better?
In Brandon Crawford's case, the answer was yes. He's entering his age-35 year, coming off of his best offensive season of his 10-year career. 79 runs, 24 HR, 90 RBI, 11 SB, 10% walk-rate, .895 OPS. Crawford was a low-key star last year.
What happened? His launch angle was 2° higher than any other year. His barrel percent increased 2% over any other year (77th percentile). And he hit fewer line drives and fewer ground balls, elevating the ball leading to more homers.
Finally, his 11 steals were a career high despite his 25th percentile sprint speed. It is difficult to trust that Crawford will hit 20+ HRs and steal 10+ bags in 2022. If only because both were career highs at age 34. But he does draw walks, barrel the ball, and has learned to elevate. You can do worse than Brandon Crawford as your starting shortstop. Just don't expect him to repeat his 2021 statistics.
13. Dansby Swanson (Atlanta Braves) 2021: .248/.311/.760, 78 runs, 27 HR, 88 RBI, 9 SB
Fantrax ADP: 129.92
Durability is a skill. Allows for accumulation of counting stats. Dansby Swanson is durable. In his four full seasons in the big leagues (2017-2021) he has 551, 533, 545, and 653 plate appearances. His power has creeped up as he has matured as well, topping out last year with 27 HRs. Swanson isn't a great hitter so he needs to play every day to be worthy of this pick. His 2021 stats are very similar to Willy Adames besides steals (9 vs 5 for Adames) but he needed 98 more plate appearances, which is why Adames is one spot above Swanson. Outside of average/hits, Dansby Swanson won't hurt your fantasy team, but pairing him with a higher upside play at shortstop a little lower in the draft may be worth the investment. If Swanson falls off at all he will drop below the starting shortstop threshold.
Tier Five
14. Gleyber Torres (NY Yankees) 2021: .259/.331/.697, 50 runs, 9 HR, 51 RBI, 14 SB
Fantrax ADP: 157.7
Do you realize Gleyber Torres hit 38 HRs in 2019? Oh, how the mighty have fallen. He's had such a roller coaster major league career. His star shone bright in 2019. But last year he had a sub .700 OPS and hit single digit HRs in 500+ plate appearances. Read that again. Sub .700 OPS, single digit HRs, 500+ PAs. Crazy. He did contribute 14 steals which was unexpected, as his previous career high was six. But he has been a major disappointment to Yankee fans and fantasy managers alike.
Gleyber Torres' average exit velocity and launch angle have decreased every year since 2019. His average EV was 15th(!) percentile last year. HardHit% 26th. And his barrel% 43rd. Coupled with a 28% chase rate (83rd) Torres is too selective and when he does hit the ball he doesn't hit it very hard. He has morphed from a power hitting middle infielder to a clever base running little pop middling veteran. His Fantrax ADP must have a New York tax added because I cannot see picking Torres before pick 200. Or maybe 250?
15. Amed Rosario (Cleveland Guardians) 2021: .282/.321/.731, 77 runs, 11 HR, 57 RBI, 13 SB
Fantrax ADP: 202.66
If he only took a walk. 97th percentile sprint speed. Speed to burn. Double digit steals and homers last year. But his 37% chase rate (10th percentile) and 3% barrel rate (8th percentile) is fantasy death. It isn't positive that he will hit double digit homers given those batted ball numbers. However, in fantasy baseball, speed is king, and Amed Rosario has speed. So if you think you can get 10 HRs and 15 SBs from Rosario in 2022 he is a useful shortstop with outfield eligibility in some leagues. He can be a positive contributor. Especially at his current ADP.
16. Miguel Rojas (Miami Marlins) 2021: .265/.322/.713, 66 runs, 9 HR, 48 RBI, 13 SB
Fantrax ADP: 340.53
Meh. Double digit HR and SB potential. Age-33 season. Bad lineup. Doesn't strike out. Punch and Judy hitter. Useful when paired with a shortstop with upside. A place holder. But if he's your starting shortstop you probably forgot to draft one.
Honorable Mention
Jonathan Villar (Free Agent)
Jose Barrero (Cincinnati Reds)
JP Crawford (Seattle Mariners)
Paul DeJong (St. Louis Cardinals)
Alcides Escobar (Washington Nationals)
Nicky Lopez (Kansas City Royals)
Isiah Kiner-Falefa (Texas Rangers)
Andres Gimenez (Cleveland Guardians)
Nico Hoerner (Chicago Cubs)
Taylor Walls (Tampa Bay Rays)
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