Tier One - The Lonely
1) Trea Turner (LA Dodgers) 2021: .328/.375/.911, 107 runs, 28 HR, 77 RBI, 32 SB
He's a bad man Trea Turner. Traded from the Nationals to the Dodgers at the 2021 trade deadline WITH(!!!) Max Scherzer for Keibert Ruiz, Josiah Gray, and pocket lint in what can only be categorized as a salary dump, Turner is now entrenched as the #1 second baseman, in a tier to himself, in last year's fourth highest scoring offense. He provides pop in all six categories at a premium position and is a safe bet to repeat. If there are reasons for concern, they are that he eclipsed his career high in HRs by nine, his steals have been on the decline (besides 2020) since 2017, his walk rate is the lowest it's been since 2016, and his BABIP higher than it's been since 2016.
It is safe to say 2021 was Trea Turner's career year. However, we can still expect .300/.350/.850 with 100 runs, 20 HRs, and 30 SBs, which comfortably puts Trea in the top spot.
Tier Two - The Ballers
2. Marcus Semien (Texas Rangers HUH?) 2021: .265/.334/.873, 115 runs, 45 HR, 102 RBI, 15 SB
Interesting that Ozzie Albies is rated, by many, ahead of Semien in both redraft and dynasty. Semien hit 15 more HRs, scored 12 more runs, and .074 more OPS last year. Semien did have fewer RBI and steals. However, I believe the real reason many are ranking Albies over Semien is that the Blue Jays played games in Dunedin, Florida and Buffalo, New York both of which surrendered more runs on a per game basis than any other stadium. Add that to age, with Albies entering his age-25 season and Semien his age-31 season, and Semien going from the Blue Jays lineup to the Rangers, and this appears to be enough for some prognosticators to rank Albies ahead of Semien.
That said, the last two full seasons from Marcus Semien (2019 and 2021) have yielded a 138 and 131 wRC+. He's averaged 119 runs, 39 HRs, 97 RBI, and 12 steals. and his OPS were .892 and .873, respectively. Furthermore, he has consistently posted walk rates above league average and doesn't chase pitches outside of the zone. Steamer and ATC see regression to low-30s HRs but I have confidence that Marcus Semien will continue to produce enough to be our #2 ranked second baseman.
3. Ozzie Albies (Atlanta Braves) 2021: .259/.310/.799, 103 runs, 30 HR, 106 RBI, 20 SB
The case for Ozzie Albies being #2 is that he is 25 years old and has put together three full seasons of similar production. We can expect 100 runs, 25+ HRs, 100 RBIs (assuming he is hitting in the heart of the order), and 15+ steals. His OPS has been consistently lower than Semien giving Marcus the edge.
Ozzie Albies has room to grow. He's 25. His 7% walk rate is below average, his zone contact below average, and his 39% chase rate is 8% above league average. Albies' plate discipline needs help. Is this an instance of, "imagine if?" Imagine if he swung a few less pitches outside of the zone and walked a little more? Would his OPS increase? Would he hit a few more balls really freaking hard? At that point, he challenges Trea Turner for the top spot because his power could potentially outweigh Turner's stolen base advantage. Ozzie Albies is currently a counting stat machine in a great offense. He needs Freeman to re-sign and Acuna to come back at full strength, but Albies has the ability and surroundings to overtake Trea Turner in 2023 or 2024. His stock is on the rise.
Tier 3 - The Power
4. Jose Altuve (Houston Astros) 2021: .278/.350/.839, 117 runs, 31 HR, 83 RBI, 5 SB
You have to admire Jose Altuve. 5'6" professional baseball player. A few more productive seasons and he has a case for the Hall of Fame. Speed was his calling card early in his career, combining speed and power during his peak years in 2016 and 2017. He doesn't run much anymore, attempting 8 steals last season, stealing 5 bags. But he remains a very good hitter. 117 runs are a lot from any player, let alone a middle infielder. He has learned to take a walk as his plate approach has matured and last season he only struck out 13% of the time, good for the 94th percentile in baseball. He does not consistently hit the ball as hard as the other players in this tier, but 100 runs, 30 HRs, 80 RBIs, and an OPS north of .800 is very good.
5. Brandon Lowe (Tampa Bay Rays) 2021: .247/.340/.863, 97 runs, 39 HR, 99 RBI, 7 SB
Launch angle. Barrel the ball. Hit home runs. Simple. He had the second highest barrel rate among second baseman last season at 14%, ranking him in the 88th percentile in the big leagues, and he hit 39 freaking HRs! None of his power appears random or lucky. His launch angle lowered slightly compared to the last two years but is still in optimal range. His barrel rate and hard hit rate have remained constant as well. His zone contact and chase rate are sub-optimal, raising questions about his pitch recognition. His numbers indicate he may be a bit of a patient guess hitter as he still takes walks. But even if he is a bit of a guess hitter, he should be good for 35 HRs, 95+ runs and RBIs, and an .850+ OPS. His low(ish) average places him between Altuve and Muncy but don't be surprised if, with a little better pitch recognition and a little luck, he hits .270 and challenges Semien and Altuve next year.
5. The Original Max Muncy (LA Dodgers) 2021: .249/.368/.895, 95 runs, 36 HR, 94 RBI, 2 SB
Did he take this picture at Sears? You have to love Max Muncy. Generously listed at 6'0" and 215 pounds, Max is a loveable slugger. He has never hit over .263, but he is an absolute lock to hit 35 HRs if he stays healthy. He also brings positional flexibility, eligible for first base this year as well. Max walked at a 14% clip in 2021 (would you believe the lowest of his career?), putting him in the 96th percentile in baseball and had a 19% chase rate (99th percentile). He is as selective a hitter as there is in baseball. His on base skills put him in position to score a lot of runs even though he doesn't hit for a high average. I love everything Max Muncy brings to the table. Selectivity, the best hard hit rate (46%) of any second baseman, consistent home run power, AND the saucy Sears portrait motivate this fantasy manager to draft and enjoy The Original Max Muncy.
Tier Three - The PuPu Platter
7. Javier Baez (Detroit Tigers) 2021: .265/.319/.813, 80 runs, 31 HR, 87 RBI, 18 SB
The 2021 season was quite the whirlwind for Javier Baez. Entering his contract year, he began the season as a Chicago Cub, was traded to the Mets at the trade deadline, and signed a six-year, $140 Million contract with the Detroit Tigers this off-season. And interestingly, he has become a very predictable player.
.265/.320/.820, 90 runs, 30 HR, 90 RBI, 15 SB. Write it in Sharpie. His batted ball profile is scary, and makes you say, "I SO WISH HE WOULD CHANGE HIS APPROACH JUST A LITTLE BIT!" But his results stay the same.
5% walk-rate = 6th percentile
34% K-rate = 3rd percentile
73% zone contact rate
47%(!!!) chase rate
AND YET...
13% barrel rate = 85th percentile
45% hard hit rate = 74th percentile
117 mph max exit velocity = 98th percentile (he hits the ball hard)
He has consistently carried a high BABIP due to how hard he hits the baseball and his sprint speed (86th percentile).
Javy Baez is a unique player. He swings at EVERYTHING. GUESSES. He and Francisco Lindor gave Mets fans the thumbs down last season when they did something well because of the previous booing from the fans. They were understandably chastised. He will always be a huge hero to so many young kids in Chicago. They won their first title in 108 years with Javy. And now he has an opportunity to build a new legacy in Detroit. What we do know is we can be 99% sure Javy Baez will swing at absolutely everything, hit the ball really hard, hit some homers, steal some bags, and sell some shirsies, size kids shmedium. He will remain a very good middle of the road starting fantasy shortstop who will carry your team for a few weeks and sink you the next. Good luck in the D, Javy. And good luck Javy owners.
8. Ketel Marte (Arizona Diamondbacks) 2021: .318/.377/.909, 52 runs, 14 HR, 50 RBI, 2 SB
Boy do I wish the Mariners still had Ketel Marte. He's come a long way from the rail-thin switch-hitter with little to no power. Traded to the D'Backs in November of 2016 with Taijuan Walker for Mitch Haniger and Jean Segura, Marte has developed into a great hitter with power. He has lost most of his speed along the way, as he is no longer a threat to steal bases, but given his long injury history, it may be for the better.
Despite missing the first month of the season AND the entire month of July, Ketel Marte still managed to score 52 runs, hit 14 HRs, 50 RBIs, while posting a .909 OPS. And it wasn't fluky. Percentiles for batted ball metrics follow (spoiler alert he destroys baseballs):
average exit velo = 82nd
max exit velo = 97th
hard hit% = 86th
Marte doesn't strike out much as shown by his 16% K-rate (80th percentile). If we were to nitpick at all he could stand to walk more (8%), his BABIP was the highest of his career (.352) although hitting the ball as hard as he did could potentially increase his BABIP, and he could shift his launch angle slightly. It was 10.3 degrees last year, meaning he was hitting line drive missiles (not such a bad thing) but an increase closer to 15 degrees would mean a drastic increase in home runs for Marte.
In short, if Ketel Marte avoids injury, he vaults into the top of tier two, challenging Marcus Semien and Ozzie Albies. While he won't steal bags at the rate they do, he is a demonstratively better pure hitter. I absolutely love Ketel Marte as a fantasy second baseman and will look to draft him wherever I can. However, use caution in dynasty leagues as Marte played 20 games at second base and 71 in the outfield last season and could look to make a permanent transition away from second base.
9. Jorge Polanco (Minnesota Twins) 2021: .269/.323/.826, 97 runs, 33 HR, 98 RBI, 11 SB
Quick question, "Would you rank Jorge Polanco higher on this list if he had scored three more runs and had two more RBIs?" I am going to guess the answer is, "yes." He is a counting stats monster, simply put. In his last two full seasons (2019 and 2021), he has averaged 152 games played and 674 plate appearances, providing ample opportunity to hit balls out of the park. Among second baseman, Jorge Polanco ranked 4th in HR, 4th in RBI, and 7th in runs in 2021. So why not rank him higher than 9th?
Take a look...
Nothing in his batted ball profile is elite. He is below average in taking walks, hard hit percentage, and chase rate. That said, he barrels the ball up well and gets the ball in the air when he does as exhibited by his 19.3 degree launch angle. His 10.1 percent barrel rate was 3.8% higher than any other year of his career and his average exit velocity was his highest as well, accounting for the increase in home run production. 22 HRs was his previous career high, hit in 2019, and he had hit double digit HRs in only one other year.
If this shift in approach is real and lasting, Jorge Polanco SHOULD be able to hit 30 HRs and steal 10 bases again in 2022. Also, the maturation of Alex Kirilloff and the hope of a full season from Byron Buxton should theoretically elevate a Twins offense which finished 14th in runs scored last season. This would certainly provide a boost to Polanco's counting stats.
He is a very good fantasy second baseman, provided he stays healthy. He has no major categorical holes. If he can continue to accumulate plate appearances AND maintains his gains in launch angle and HardHit percentage, he should be a safe bet for 90 runs, 30 HR, 90 RBI, and 10 SB. Consider me in on Jorge Polanco.
10. Whit Merrifield (Kansas City Royals) 2021: .277/.317/.711 97 runs, 10 HR, 74 RBI, 40 SB
Whitley David Merrifield is no Vincent Edward "Bo" Jackson. The question is: what is 2022 Whit Merrifield?
Here's what we can count on.
- His walk rate will be subpar.
6% rate and 11th percentile.
- He's going to put the ball in play.
14% K-rate.
- He's not going to hit the ball very hard.
12th percentile for average exit velocity
6th for HardHit%
12th for barrel%.
- He's really fast (40 steals and 87th percentile for sprint speed) and he will hit leadoff, which he did every game last season. Like Polanco, he will be near the top of the MLB leaderboard for plate appearances giving him every opportunity to accumulate counting stats.
Even at 33 years old, Whit Merrifield should hit 10+ HRs and steal 35 bags. His history says so. 2020 Covid season not withstanding, Merrifield has hit 10+ HRs and stolen 35 bases per year. When you look at those numbers, coupled with a good to great batting average, I can understand ranking Merrifield much higher. But I just can't get past his .711 OPS. His years of .800+ OPS appear to be over. Where you choose to rank Merrifield in your second base rankings has everything to do with your roster construction philosophy. If you are a manager who looks to patch steals together with steal contributors throughout your lineup, you may want to look for more OPS and 10 steals from a player like Polanco or India. If you like to have a couple of speed demons, allowing for slow, zero steal contributing sluggers in other spots, Merrifield provides just enough power in the counting stats categories to justify the pick. Just make sure to keep an eye on your overall OPS/OBP.
My preference is to build balance, without any major holes in my lineup. If Merrifield's OPS remains in the low .700s and OBP in the low .300s (for those in OBP leagues), I would stay away from Merrifield, even at my rank, which is much lower than consensus.
11. Jonathan India (Cincinnati Reds) 2021: .269/.376/.835, 98 runs, 21 HR, 69 RBI, 12 SB
The continued rise of Jonathan India stock is a risky one, in one man's humble opinion. Never in his professional career had India displayed 20+ HR power. He doesn't hit the ball very hard (21st percentile average exit velo and 36th percentile HardHit). But, he sees the ball well and has more speed to tap. An 11% walk rate looks very good as does his 25% chase rate (86th percentile). Finally, India's sprint speed ranked him in the 86th percentile helping him to swipe 12 bags last season.
So where does this leave us with Jonathan India? He doesn't possess the upside of any of the second baseman above him on this list. Heck, he doesn't possess the upside of the next guy on this list either. However, can we count on .260/.360/.800 with 85 runs, 15 HR, 15 SB? I'd say, "si se puede." He is only 25 years old, meaning his career arc is theoretically still on the upswing. But his power may not be lasting. We may be looking at a gap hitter who takes walks and adds steals. Not a bad starting second baseman. But one you may always be looking to replace in dynasty.
12. Jazz Chisholm (Miami Marlins) 2021: .248/.303/.728, 70 runs, 18 HR, 53 RBI, 23 SB
Speaking of stock, could there be a riskier second base stock than Jazz Chisholm? Woooo boy. We see Chisholm ranked anywhere from 8th to 13th in the most current second base rankings. He'll be in his age-24 season. With 18 HR and 23 SB last season and only one full major league season under his belt, we can assume he will be a 20/20 player for the next few years, barring injury. That is insanely valuable. Trea Turner (#1) and Ozzie Albies (#3) were the only second baseman to go 20/20 last season.
And the rest you ask? Needs work. 7% walk-rate (19th percentile). 29% K-rate (10th). 33% chase-rate (24th). His approach is one which creates an extreme variability of outcomes. It wouldn't surprise anyone if he hit .200 and still had a 20/20 season. And it wouldn't surprise anyone if he hit .290 and pushed 30/30. His sprint speed was in the 94th percentile and his willingness to attempt to steal as seen with his 31 attempts last season make his appeal incredible for any fantasy owner with an iron stomach and a case of Pepto. Unfortunately for me, I have stomach issues. He could single-handedly tank your avg/hits category AND your OPS/SLG category. Jazz plus a light-hitting catcher or a "rabbit" could spell doom for your fantasy offense. Or Jazz leaps into tier 2 in 2023. Flip a coin.
Tier 4 - Khakis and a Polo (Old School)
13. Tommy Edman (St.Louis Cardinals) 2021: .262/.308/.695, 91 runs, 11 HR, 56 RBI, 30 SB
If we could only go back to the stock baby blue away uniforms. Classic. And dope. Reminds me of the 1986 St.Louis Cardinals. Vince Coleman, Willie McGee, Ozzie Smith, Andy Van Slyke. Fitting, because Tommy Edman's game is straight out of 1986. Speed. Put the ball in play. Hustle. Grind.
Tommy Edman is a poor man's Whit Merrifield. The similarities are striking.
Identical wRC+. Identical walk-rate. Identical K-rate. Identical barrel rate. Edman hits the ball a little harder, makes a little more contact in the zone, and chases a little less. But overall, their numbers look eerily similar. The major differences are their RBIs and steals. RBIs are a function of your teammates and opportunity, both of which are out of the batter's control. However, 10 steals is a big difference. Kansas City ranked first in steal attempts per game and St.Louis ranked eighth. Team philosophy regarding baserunning and attempting steals can greatly impact the value of players like Edman and Merrifield. What's fascinating to me is that Merrifield's ADP is currently at 43 and Edman's is at 106. Unless we are expecting Whit Merrifield's power to spike back to previous levels (he is 33 years old after all), I don't see this difference in ADP corresponding with their actual production. Edman is a steal (pun intended) at pick 106 whereas Merrifield is like buying Jose Cuervo tequlia at Clase Azul prices.
In short, Edman is entering his age-27 year and if we get a little more pop and a few more steals we could be looking at the next Whit Merrifield at budget Whit Merrifield prices.
14. Eduardo Escobar (NY Metropolitans) 2020: .253/.314/.786, 77 runs, 28 HR, 90 RBI, 1 SB
Eduardo Escobar peaced-out from Arizona and signed a 2-year, $20M (with a 2024 club option) contract with the New York Mets. It isn't incredibly exciting to sign a 33 year old second baseman to a two year contract . And the same excitement level is conjured when thinking about Eduardo Escobar as your starting fantasy baseball second baseman.
Not sexy. Not fun. No steals. Low OBP. And yet, Escobar is a decent source of runs, HRs, and RBIs. Over the last three full years (not counting Covid shortened 2020), he has averaged 82 runs, 28 HR, and 97 RBI. He won't steal bases and he won't hit for average. Heck, he may even drag down your OBP. What he does do is elevate the ball and hit home runs. He hits it high and just far enough, which is great in Arizona, but may not hold up in Queens.
If I walk away from my 16-team draft with Eduardo Escobar as my starting second baseman, I had better have a high-upside prospect ready to go, or I will immediately begin scouring the waiver wire and trade block. No offense Eduardo, you provide the minimum substance and zero style, kind of like khakis.
Tier Five - The Young Bucks
15. Gavin Lux (Los Angeles Dodgers) 2021: .242/.328/.692, 49 runs, 7 HR, 46 RBI, 4 SB
Loads of talent. In a great offense. Pedigree. Everything is in place for Gavin Lux to erupt in 2022 and become the superstar everyone touted him to be.
Fangraphs sees potential for 60 Hit, 70 Game Power, 65 Raw Power, and 55 Speed. Sounds like a superstar to me.
Taking a closer look, the approach Lux took to hitting year as a 23 year old was mature and patient. It is reflected in an 11% walk rate and a 26% chase rate, good for the 73rd and 87th percentile, respectively. He also had above average rates in avg and max exit velocity. The eye and the power are present. So what happened last year? His 47% groundball rate didn't help matters. Nor did his 11.3 degree launch angle, which was 5 degrees higher than Brendan Rodgers (spoiler alert) but still not near the 15-20 degree optimal range.
He falls in the, "if he could just..." category. However, tweaking your launch angle slightly and decreasing your groundball rate is not uncommon. Just ask Jorge Polanco. All of the skills are there for Gavin Lux to become a .290/.370/.850 player. 25-30 HRs? 100 RBI? Even 20 SBs are not out of the question. He stole bases in the minor leagues and ranked in the 94th percentile for sprint speed in 2021.
In summary, buy all of the Gavin Lux stock you can if you think he can shift his launch angle slightly and hit fewer ground balls. There is precedent for making this exact adjustment. Count me in as a buyer. Of all the young second baseman, Gavin Lux is the young second baseman not named Ozzie Albies I want on my fantasy baseball team.
16. Brendan Rodgers (Colorado Rockies) 2021: .284/.328/.798, 49 runs, 15 HR, 51 RBI, 0 SB
"And with the number three pick in the 2015 Major League Draft, the Colorado Rockies select...Brendan Rodgers, shortstop."
We have expected greatness from Rodgers since he was drafted #3 overall in 2015. It is easy to dream on a
60 Hit/60 game power middle infielder taking half of his at bats in Coors Field. And while Rodgers does not quite conjure up the dreams of superstardom any longer, he is still a high ceiling hitter who will remain a middle infielder.
Last season he produced about as one would expect. If we prorated his stats for around 600 PAs, he would have been a .284/.328/.798 hitter with 74 runs, 22 HR, 76 RBI, and 0 SB. Not bad for a back end second baseman. He will always hit for decent average, but until he fixes his groundball rate (50.8% last year vs 42.9% league average) AND increases his launch angle (6.3 degrees last season) he will be a slow, worm burning, what could have been a superstar second baseman who is almost serviceable as your starting second baseman in a 16 team league.
Honorable Mention
Ty France (Seattle Mariners) - 1B eligible
Nick Madrigal (Chicago Cubs [felt weird typing that])
Enrique Hernandez (Boston Red Sox) - OF eligible
Jeff McNeil (New York Metropolitans) - OF eligible
Jean Segura (Philadelphia Phillies)
Adam Frazier (Your Seattle Mariners)
Kolton Wong (St.Louis)
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