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There are very few nits to pick with his profile. 11.6% walk rate, lowest, O-swing of any catcher in the top 16, double digit barrel rate, and the third lowest K rate. He won't contribute steals and his average will not climb due to his 30% GB rate and 46.1% fly ball rate, but Will Smith is a very safe bet to end the season with 25 HRs, 90-100 RBIs, and an OPS above .800
- Alejandro Kirk is not far behind. He has fewer HRs and RBIs than Smith and reverses Smith's GB/FB numbers, meaning chances are Kirk will have a much higher average but fewer HRs ROS. Kirk is currently hitting 3rd or 4th in the Toronto lineup, which is the 7th rated offense in MLB.
- Adley Rutschman is at #4. He is showing an advanced eye at the plate for a rookie. 9.3% walk rate and only an 18.7% K rate is outstanding given he hasn't even had 200 MLB plate appearances. His .250 BABIP , low O-swing (meaning he doesn't chase), 90 plus % zone contact rate (meaning he doesn't miss when he swings at strikes), and a 7% swinging strike rate (3rd lowest amonst the top 16 catchers ROS) all are predictors for a high average, high OBP catcher. The only remaining question is whether Adley will hit for power. His power metrics are not at the level of the catchers above him as of het but the launch angle (16.9°) and the swing are there. Adley's stock is on the rise.
- Tyler Stephenson is currently slashing .319/.372/.482 (.854 OPS). So why is he the #7 catcher ROS. Well, he is doing it with a .409 BABIP and an 87.1 mph aEV. BABIP can remain high throughout the season for players who hit a high percentage of ground balls and have above average speed. However, Stephenson is hitting ground balls 41.3% of the time (league average is 42.9%) AND his savant speed is in the 35th percentile. He hits in a nice home park and is certainly an above average hitting catcher, but the .319 average and whatever power he has shown will likely fall off of a cliff. I'd be selling Stephenson right now if possible.
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