Tier One
1) Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Toronto Blue Jays) 2021: .311/.401/1.002 123 runs, 48 HR, 111 RBI, 4 SB
Vladito is a superstar. And if it wasn't for an absolutely historic Ruthian-like season from Shohei Ohtani he would have been the runaway American League MVP. 12% walk-rate vs 16% K-rate. 15% barrel rate. 55% hard hit rate. 95 mph AVG(!) exit velocity. AND he's a hitter, not just a slugger. 70 hit tool and 80 raw power is quite a combination. The only real threat to Guerrero Jr.'s league dominance is his health. The threat of Vladito getting too heavy to play firstbase is real. Listed by Fangraphs at 6'2" (actually 5'11") and 250 lbs., he slimmed down slightly heading into 2021 almost won the MVP as a 22 year old.
The sky is the limit for young Vladimir. There is no reason to expect a dip in production this upcoming season. Steamer has him right in line with 2021's counting statistics. Pencil in Vladito for .300/.400/1.000, 100 runs, 40+ HRs, 100 RBI. And expect a charismatic, young superstar who plays with joy and passion.
Tier Two
2) Freddie Freeman (Atlanta Braves) 2021: .300/.393/.896 120 runs, 31 HR, 83 RBI, 8 SB
Since 2016 (besides Covid shortened 2020), Freddie Freeman has hit between .295 and .307, averaged 31 HRs, 103 runs, 93 RBIs, and 7 SB. He's been the model of consistency. His launch angle dropped to 12%, the lowest of his career, but his 45.7% hard hit rate was the highest of any full season. Assuming he re-signs with the Atlanta Braves, there is no reason to expect any sort of drop off from Freddie Freeman, despite the fact he is entering his age-33 season. .300/400/.875, 100 runs, 30 HR, 90 RBI, 7 SB appears to be a given, with positive adjustment coming if he were to sign with the Yankees or the Blue Jays (rumored suitors).
3) Matt Olson (Oakland Athletics for now) .271/.371/.911 101 runs, 39 HR, 111 RBI, 4 SB
There is temptation to rank Matt Olson over Freddie Freeman, as he is younger and his power potential is greater. Less hit tool and a touch more power. Freeman's track record and consistency give him a slight edge. However, if you are searching for a little more upside, Olson is the selection. His 13% walk rate is in line with the other elite first baseman and his bat to ball metrics are slightly better than Freeman (barrel, hardhit, max exit, avg EV). Matt Olson has been included in ALL of the juicy hot stove rumors with the Yankees as his most aggressive suitor. Olson in Yankee Stadium would be lethal and 45 HRs would be realistic and expected. If you draft Matt Olson, you are getting Freddie Freeman with a lower floor and a higher ceiling. He has some batting average variability which could take him to the .240s but he's going to hit for power and take tons of walks. Matt Olson is the #3 redraft first baseman but don't be surprised if he passes Freddie Freeman in 2022.
4) Pete Alonso (New York Mets) 2021: .262/.344/.863 81 runs, 37 HR, 94 RBI, 3 SB
Hits HRs. Projected for 40 HR and 100 RBI by ATC and Steamer. Supports NYPD and NYFD. People love him. Pete Alonso is a slugger. The shine is real. Decent average, decent OBP, homers, RBIs a plenty. His current ADP is 62, putting Alonso at the end of round 4. Assuming you don't have to pay a big market/NY tax for Alonso, I consider him a safe bet to be a run producer at 1B in round 4. And given the proximity of his 53 HR year in 2019, there is considerable upside. Pete Alonso's peripherals have remained steady (launch angle, line drive %, etc) giving him a solid floor to count on. He is solidly our #4 first baseman in redraft leagues.
Tier 3
5) Jose Abreu (Chicago White Sox) .261/.351/.831 86 runs, 30 HR, 117 RBI, 1 SB
Jose Abreu is an old-school run-producer. He reminds me of one of my favorite players growing up, Pedro Guererro.
I can imagine a 1986 Topps Jose Abreu card with his "GWRBI" number in italics, representing league leader.
Outside of the Covid-shortened 2020, Abreu has surpassed 100 RBIs in all but one season since 2014. He's also a safe bet for 25 HRs and a decent average. His metrics are pretty standard across the board, 9% walk-rate, 22% K-rate. He is a fixture in the 3-hole in the 7th best offense in baseball (runs scored). A little longer in the tooth and entering his age-35 season, there is absolutely no upside with Jose Abreu. If consistency and RBIs are what you are seeking from your first baseman, you could do a lot worse than "Pito."
6) Paul Goldschmidt (St.Louis Cardinals) 2021: .294/.365/.879, 102 R, 31 HR, 99 RBI, 12 SB
It is difficult to poke holes in Goldy other than the fact he is entering his age-34 season. He has been the model of consistency for nine years. 2019 was subpar by his standards, but Goldy appears to be a safe bet for .290/.360/.850 with 100 runs, 30 HRs, 95 RBIs and a sprinkling of steals. The Cardinals were the 20th ranked offense in runs scored in 2021 and there are no signs that they will be better in 2022, making RBIs a tough stat to predict for Goldschmidt. In fact, we could see a rookie in Nolan Gorman assume a starting role and watch the continued decline of Yadier Molina. Additionally, Tyler O'Neill and Harrison Bader had career years in 2021. While Goldy's skills do not appear to be on the decline (his hardhit, barrel, walk rates are all above average), the surrounding parts will not help his stats. The conversation between Goldschmidt and Abreu is primarily one of average and steals vs RBIs. I am more confident in making up the difference with average and steals at other positions but understand the argument for Goldschmidt at number five.
7) Joey Votto (Cincinnati Reds) 2021: .266/.375/.938 73 runs, 36 HR, 99 RBI, 1 SB
Joey Votto used to be "Vottomatic" for .300/.400/.550. He was criticized because he walked TOO MUCH and didn't drive in enough runs. Then Votto hit 38 HRs in 2018, 2019, and 2020 combined. Votto was washed they said. Votto was owed $22.5 million yearly through 2023 with a club option for 2024. His contract was considered one of the worst in baseball. And all Joey Votto did in 2021, as a 37 year old first baseman no less, was hit 36 HRs, two less than the previous three years combined. How did he do this? With career highs in barrel-rate (95th percentile), exit velocity (93rd percentile), launch angle, and hard-hit percent (96th percentile). The change in approach and the awareness to make that change say a lot about why Joey Votto is a Hall of Famer and as long as these changes remain, Votto has a great chance to post similar statistics to 2021.
Tier 4
8) Josh Bell (Washington Nationals) 2021: .261/.347/.823 75 runs, 27 HR, 88 RBI, 0 SB
The first real controversial ranking at first base. Olson and Abreu are a bit higher than consensus but this is the first which could be characterized as out of left field. However, upon further examination, Josh Bell has tremendous opportunity to shoot into the top five of the first base rankings.
Below are the standard quick glance metrics I utilize when assessing offensive performance.
Bell exhibited some frightening signs last year. His 9% barrel rate ranked him in the 53rd percentile, not great for a slugging first baseman. But even more concerning were his 53.5% ground ball rate, a whopping 10.6% higher than major league average, and 4.9 degree launch angle. It is difficult to hit home runs when you are pounding the ball into the ground, no matter how hard you hit it. But before you bury Josh Bell, he walked at an 11% clip and only struck out 18% of the time which was 5% lower than league average. He also hit the ball hard. Average exit velocity was in the 92nd percentile, max exit 96th, and hard hit 93rd. Josh Bell sees the ball well, hits it hard when he connects, and doesn't strike out much for a power hitter. He also hit 37 HRs in 2019. Historically, Bell's BABIP has been slightly lower than league average, but one can reasonably expect his .276 BABIP to increase slightly, especially if he tweaks his swing.
It can be assumed that he is working on his swing and launch angle this off-season. Even without the tweak, he delivered 27 HRs and 88 RBIs. IF Bell can elevate the ball even a touch more, we are looking at .280/.370/.870 with 35 HRs and 100 RBIs, numbers slightly below his 2019 but good enough to rank him the top five first baseman. Buy Josh Bell while you can.
9) Brandon Belt (SF Giants) 2021: .274/.374/.975, 65 runs, 29 HR, 59 RBI, 3 SB
If only he didn't miss all of July...
Belt had never hit more than 18 HRs in a season prior to 2021. His metrics don't show big adjustments at the plate, other than a slight increase in launch angle and barrel percent. But a 13% walk rate, 17% barrel rate, and a 45% hard hit rate all bode well for Brandon Belt in 2022. Health has always been an issue for Belt and he is entering his age-34 season so keep a close eye on his status and potentially pair Belt with another first baseman in this range.
10) Rhys Hoskins (Philadelphia Phillies) .247/.334/.864, 64 runs, 27 HR, 71 RBI, 3 SB
Hoskins is a career .241 hitter. What you do get from him is consistent power. Since 2018, Hoskins' OPS were .850 (2018), .819, .887, .864. His walk rate decreased to 10.6% this past season, way off his career 14.3% which is a bit alarming. His K-rate remained in line with previous years. Where we did see slight change were in his statcast numbers. His average exit velocity, hard hit, and barrel rates were all career highs. What does this mean? Hoskins swung the bat more often and at more pitches in and out of the zone than he ever had. This appears to be a slight shift in approach. It is difficult to predict if he will continue to swing more or go back to the more patient approach which yielded a 14% career walk rate. Either way, Hoskins is a safe bet to hit around .250/.350/.850 with 30 or so HRs. Not bad for a starting first baseman in a 16-team league if you are getting elite production from another position. Minimal risk. Minimal upside.
11) Jared Walsh (Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim) 2021: .277/.340/.850 70 runs, 29 HR, 98 RBI, 2 SB
Is he the run-producing, power-hitting, third bat next to Trout and Shohei in LA? Or was last season a mirage? There is no doubting Walsh's raw power as he hit 29 HRs with an .850 OPS in 2021. However, upon further examination, there are some troubling stats which are cause for concern. He posted an 8% walk-rate and a 26% strikeout-rate which rank in the 40th and 20th percentiles, respectively. He also had a rough 34% chase rate (19th percentile). Coupling a league average walk rate, a high strikeout rate, and a propensity to chase pitches outside of the strike zone, the range of potential outcomes for Walsh in 2022 appears to be quite large. Finally, his .335 BABIP was in line with some of his minor league seasons but with any dip closer to league average BABIP we could easily see an average closer to .250. Walsh is not a horrible option at the back end of the 16 team league first baseman but not the one for me.
12) Yuli Gurriel (Houston Astros) .319/.383/.846, 83 runs, 15 HR, 81 RBI, 1 SB
What a puzzling player. A player from a different generation. He put up numbers in 2021. No doubt. He finished second in AL Batting average to Vladito, batting .319. He hits almost everything he swings at as evidenced by his 5% swinging strike rate and 93% zone contact rate. But this can also be a problem. The fact that he hits the ball so often means the quality of contact won't necessarily be so great. He barreled up the ball only 3% of the time which was dead last of the 35 first baseman I tracked and in the 10th percentile of all major leaguers. He is a supremely coordinated, line drive hitter who will boost your average category and provide serviceable runs and RBIs but you will be left searching for home runs. Did I mention he is entering his age-38 season? He will help someone's team, but not mine.
Tier 5
13) Spencer Torkelson (Detroit Tigers) 2021(minors) .267/.383/.935, 89 runs, 30 HR, 91 RBI, 5 SB
The future is now. Tork was the #1 overall pick of the Detroit Tigers in the 2020 MLB draft. Fangraphs rates him as a 60 hit, 70 In-game/raw power first baseman who may get some run at third base as well. He has prodigious, light-tower power. He and Riley Greene are expected to be the saviors of a once-proud, historied organization. The question is when?
At the time of writing, the MLB owners/players union dispute has not been settled. We are in full lockout mode. If the most recent rules regarding service time continue, there is reason to believe Tork would be held in AAA until his Super-2 status swung in the team's favor. However, IF these rules change once an agreement is reached, AND Torkelson performs well in spring training, it isn't unreasonable to believe that Spencer Torkelson could be a the starting first baseman for the Detroit Tigers. Standing in his way will be a 39-year old Miguel Cabrera and Jonathan Schoop who will likely make the majority of his starts at second base. Tork will soon be a superstar, trailing only Vladito on our first base dynasty rankings. He will be a great watch in 2022 and likely hit 20-25 HRs. How quickly he can adjust to big league pitching and show a decent contact rate will determine the ceiling of his 2022 season but I would love to have Spencer Torkelson on my team, optimally as a corner infield back up, utility hitter, and if he pops, my starting first baseman.
14) Bobby "Freaking" Dalbec (Boston Red Sox) 2021: .240/.298/.792, 50 runs, 25 HR, 78 RBI, 2 SB
Woooo weeee! Bobby Dalbec sure is an interesting one. You don't want to be the manager who passes on the next 45 HR hitter but there are some serious warning signs as well as Triston Casas on his way to the big club.
First the bad news. 6% walk rate and 34% K-rate are not good. Additionally, his zone-contact rate is 12% lower than league average and his swinging strike rate is 7% higher than league average. So...he doesn't walk, he strikes out a ton, he doesn't hit balls in the zone as often as other hitters, AND he swings and misses a lot. Yuck.
Now the good news. When he does hit the ball he hits it a country mile. His 20% barrel rate was tops among first baseman in 2021. Higher than Vladito, higher than Matt Olson, higher than Freddie Freeman. Additionally, his max exit velocity ranked in the 98th percentile and his average exit velocity in the 91st. This is how you hit home runs. He's frightening. Fangraphs gives Dalbec a 30 hit tool, 55 in game power, and 70 raw power, meaning their scouts believe he can't hit, has huge power, but likely will not realize this power in games.
He is high risk, high reward. Can we see 45 HRs from Dalbec? Absolutely. Could we see him in AAA in May in favor of Casas if he starts slowly? Absolutely. If you draft Dalbec, I beg you to pair him with a consistent hitter whom you can count on. Let Dalbec be your lottery ticket, not your pay check.
15) C.J. Cron (Colorado Rockies) 2021: .281/.375/.905, 70 runs, 28 HR, 92 RBI, 1 SB
Not my cup of tea. However, there is no debating an OPS north of .900 over more than 500 plate appearances. C.J. Cron is not going to grab headlines for Colorado or for your fantasy team but he is going to provide you with decent production. Here's the reason for hesitation: His OPS at Coors Field was 1.073 vs .734 away from home. He would not be rostered on most teams, yet he is a monster at Coors. His place on the team and in the lineup are not guaranteed either. The Rockies drafted first baseman in the first round in both 2018 and 2019 and even though neither Michael Toglia nor Grant Lavigne have proven to be worthy of their draft status, the Rockies will surely do everything they can to ensure their success down the road, including giving them major league at bats if the Rockies are out of contention. Finally, Cron is signed through 2023 at an affordable $7.25 million AAV and could be traded to a contender at the deadline. He is ranked #15 because you simply can't ignore a .900+ OPS and 28 HRs but the chances of both a repeat season AND not being traded for prospects at the deadline are slim. Draft C.J. Cron at your own risk.
16. Miguel Sano (Minnesota Twins) 2021: .223/.312/.778, 68 runs, 30 HR, 75 RBI, 2 SB
"Miguel Sano and Shattered Dreams" - Memoirs of a late 2010s Fantasy Baseball Manager. This should be the name of my next book.
But seriously, when will we ever learn? Rated as high as the #4 prospect in baseball by MLB.com in 2014, Miguel Sano was the next big slugger. We all scrambled to trade for him at the end of the 2015 season, expecting him to develop into a superstar. In fact, in 2015, in 335 plate appearances, Sano had a 16% walk rate, a .916 OPS, and hit 18 HRs. He allowed us to dream about he and Buxton in the same lineup for the next 10 years. But it was only a dream. Sano has settled into a low .200s hitter with mammoth power and a 34% strikeout rate. Could he pop for a 40 HR season? Sure. But it clearly will not be because of adjustments he made. Likely luck would play a major factor. That said, his 11% walk rate was decent, and his batted ball metrics are stunning. 97th percentile exit velocity! 98th percentile max exit velocity! 99% hard hit rank! 97th percentile barrel rate! If he could only...
Honorable Mention
Trey Mancini (Baltimore Orioles)
Anthony Rizzo (TBD)
Rowdy Tellez (Milwaukee Brewers)
Nathaniel Lowe (Texas Rangers)
Bobby Bradley (Cleveland Gaurdians)
Frank Schwindel (Chicago Cubs)
Darin Ruf (San Francisco Giants)
Jesus Aguilar (Miami Marlins)
Andrew Vaughn (Chicago White Sox)
Note: Multi-position eligible players are ranked at the position likely most valuable. Players like Ryan Mountcastle and Garrett Cooper were not included at first base.
Comments